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(Wall Street Journal) Many things were predicted to happen in the media and advertising business this year. And many big things did happen, few of which were expected. (Oh wait, that’s right. You’re the one whoknew thatVerizon Communicationswas going to acquire AOL.)
Now that it’s the time of year when everyone is making their fresh 2016 predictions, it’s worth examining all those forecasts and bets from a year ago.
So, once again, ashas become CMO Today tradition, we are taking a look at the predictions—or just conventional wisdom that keeps getting repeated—that proved to be dead wrong (or at least too optimistic) in 2015:
Yahoo, led by CEO Marissa Mayer, was once again the subject of much speculation.PHOTO:BLOOMBERG NEWS
1)Yahoowill merge with AOL
Well, this one technically could still happen, but not in the manner many had advocated for. AOL surprised everyone by getting bought by Verizon. But this old rumor is coming up again asYahoo switches gears strategically and pursues a spinoff of its core business. Everyone from Verizon/AOL to IAC to private equity has been reportedly interested in taking a look.
2)Lots of ad tech acquisitions
Sure there were some deals, but there are some big companies and familiar names, such as MediaMath and Turn, who many thought would have an exit by now. But between thestock market being unkind to the categoryand Google andFacebookconsolidating power in the sector, deal-making hasn’t been heating up in ad tech.
3)Programmatic TVwill get big
Probably someday. But in 2015, TV was still mostly bought and sold directly by people.
4)The TV upfrontwill be all about data
Yes, every network touted some data-centric deals, and every network has a special division dedicated to growing this business. But billions were still spent this year using old-fashioned Nielsen ratings.
5)Twitterwill figure out what it is
At least the company has a CEO who is likely to be there for a while (despite arather demanding after-school job). Theunderwhelming “Moments” productseems a step toward appealing to the masses. But the company continues to endure one of the more public identity crises this side of Yahoo.
6)Newspapers will be over
Sure, it’s not the greatest time in history to be working at a print publication, particularly in a smaller market. But look at whatJeff Bezos has done with the Washington Post. Plus,the Financial Times sold to Nikkei for $1.3 billion.
7)Apple will blow up the TV model
Wishful thinking. It’s getting hard at this point to even keep track of thevarious false starts Apple’s had in the realm. But suffice it to say, there’s still no game-changing live TV package from Apple.
8)A good number of mid-tier cable networks will disappear from the dial
This may still happen, given the continuing ratings weakness and emergency of skinny cable bundles. We’ve seen how tough it can be to launch a new cable network (seeFusion).But for now, all those Pivots and VH1 Classics and Reelz are still in business, and new channels are even emerging:Vice can’t wait to get on the cable dial.
PHOTO:BLOOMBERG NEWS/LANDOV
9)Facebook will bury YouTube
There’s no question thatFacebook is now a video monster, as is Snapchat. Yet Google says that the number of hours people spend watching videos on YouTube is up 60% from a year ago, and the number of people watching every day is up 40%.
10)Ad fraud will be fixed
As much as the online ad industry would like to turn the page on this issue, and as much as groups like the Interactive Advertising Bureau say this is a relatively easy fix, bogus ad inventorystill roils the industry.
11)We will all see the right ad at the right time
Except that right now you are seeing ads for things you already bought someone from Christmas.
12)All the ad agencies will disappear
There’s no question that the agency model is under pressure—yet agency holding companies like Omnicom Groupkeep investing in more agencies.
ILLUSTRATION:BLOOMBERG
13)Major brand advertisers will move money into mobile
Beyond Facebook, this is still a trend-in-waiting. Maybe 2016.
