Asia shares rebound in sharp turnaround from Trump shock

Reuters

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Asian shares rebounded on Thursday and the dollar firmed in a remarkable snapback from the shock of Republican Donald Trump's presidential victory, though the speed of the reversal left some market watchers scratching their heads.

The Nikkei duly recouped all of Wednesday's 5 percent loss and more to trade up roughly 6 percent as the yen weakened following the previous session's surge.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan bounced 1.7 percent after dropping 2.4 percent on Wednesday as global markets plunged as Trump swept to power.

Australian stocks soared 3 percent in the largest daily gain since late 2011 and Shanghai rose 1 percent.

"An astonishing turnaround in risk appetite pushed equities and Treasury yields higher," said Imre Speizer, an economist at Westpac.

"Markets appeared to reassess the economic outlook under Trump, toward one of higher growth and higher inflation."

He noted that a key market barometer of 10-year inflation expectations had jumped to a 16-month peak of 1.87 percent.

Amid expectations of higher spending and inflation under Trump, yields on U.S. Treasury 10-year notes reversed an initial plunge to 1.716 percent and bloated to 2.09 percent overnight, the highest since January.

The net rise of 21 basis points was the largest daily increase since July 2013.

Trump's key policy priorities include generous tax cuts and higher infrastructure and defense spending, along with deregulation for banks.

The dollar carved out a staggering range, rebounding along with the surge in U.S. yields from as low as 101.19 yen all the way to 105.96 early on Thursday.

Helping boost the dollar, investors again revised the outlook for U.S. interest rates in the wake of Trump's victory, with the probability of a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve going from as low as 30 percent to as high as 80 percent.

The dollar index against major currencies recovered from a trough of 95.885 plumbed on Wednesday to around 98.448.

Having stretched as high as $1.1300 in the initial panic over Trump's win, the euro then slumped all the way to $1.0906 overnight - a move of roughly four cents.

The longer-term outlook for the dollar's weakening peers remained unclear, however.

"We expect a Trump Treasury to elevate the importance of the bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. in identifying currency manipulators and intensify pressure on trade partners to allow currencies to appreciate," Tim Condon, an Singapore-based economist at ING, said in a report.

Meanwhile the action was no less noteworthy on Wall Street, where S&P 500 futures had shed 5 percent at one stage in Asian trade on Wednesday only to stand 1.1 percent higher late in the day.

The Dow jumped 1.4 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both added 1.11 percent. Trading volume was the highest since June, when Britain voted to abandon the European Union.

The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety, fell 23 percent and was on track for its biggest daily drop since late June.

S&P futures were marginally lower in Asian trade on Thursday.

(REUTERS)