HistoricTokyo poll setback suggests ominous future for Abe, ruling party

APD NEWS

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The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffering an historic clobbering against newly-formed Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike's Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election on Sunday has severely damaged the very foundation of the LDP, with its future course and leadership now uncertain, experts here said.

The LDP being on the receiving end of its worst defeat in the history of the Tokyo municipal election has triggered a whole lot of soul-searching within the ruling camp, while Tomin First no Kai now dominating the assembly with 49 of its 127 seats and 79 seats along with its allies, has profound implications stemming far beyond just local politics, pundits attest.

"The public's overwhelming support for Koike and her new party is not only a testament to their faith in the Tokyo governor, but it is also a very clear message sent to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Liberal Democratic Party that they are dissatisfied with the way the party has been handling a number of contentious matters recently," Asian affairs commentator Kaoru Imori told Xinhua.

"The LDP and senior officials have been embroiled in a number of scandals recently and the public feel they have not fully accounted for themselves and used their majority to simply push their own agenda. What we've seen in this election, is the public is not as passive as perhaps it used to be in sticking with the status quo," he said.

He went on to explain that as much as the public were voting for Koike, they were also voting against the LDP for its autocratic style of "single party-esque" politics and its tendency to "force its issues" without enough parliamentary deliberation with opposition parties or suitable explanations to the public.

Experts have also been quick to highlight the fact that the LDP's defeat was so damaging for the party that Hakubun Shimomura, who heads the party's Tokyo chapter, had little choice but to step down from the post to take responsibility for the historic defeat.

Equally, the future course of the LDP is now in question, based on Sunday's election drubbing, as the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections are often a barometer for the future of national politics, and, while Tomin First no Kai may not be entering national politics immediately, some pundits believe it won't be long until the LDP has to contend with the new party on a national level.

Along with the possibility of a new opposition party or opposition coalition with some political teeth in the Diet in the future, to rein in the LDP, in the nearer term the election loss and the implications ahead have shaken the very core of the ruling party, analysts have said.

"The current course of the LDP in light of the election loss and recent scandals and gaffe's by its lawmakers may well impact its leadership election in September next year, as well as the next lower house election to be held by December 2018," Imori said.

"Prior to the election, the course of the LDP was all very predictable as the party was solid. This is no longer the case," he said.

"And also now in doubt under such a frail LDP, is Abe's sole drive to amend the constitution, and we can expect to hear more from Shigeru Ishiba (a former defense minister in Japan and LDP heavyweight), who disagrees with Abe about the way in which the constitution should be changed and is, in fact, Abe's biggest potential rival for the LDP's leadership," said Imori.

Other political analysts have pointed to the fact that the LDP's momentous failings in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election is a testament to the fact that recent polls showing that the support rate for Abe's cabinet had tumbled prior to the election were right on the money and that the national mood was one that would no longer stand for Abe's steamroller-style of politics and scandal-dodging tactics.

Teruhisa Muramatsu said Abe talking of "soul searching" following the election loss and the future implications for his party, his presidentship, and, indeed, the party's very future, in a briefing on the matter on Monday, may result in a more "forthcoming" LDP as well as a possible shakeup of his cabinet in a bid to try and restore the public's diminishing faith.

"The influence-peddling scandals involving the prime minister and other senior officials involving both Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Educational Institution prior to the election have yet to be fully explained, as called for by the opposition camp, and the public are irate at the LDP about this as well," Muramatsu said, adding that Abe has little choice now but to be more open and honest with the public.

He noted that there were protests on the streets in Tokyo during the election on Sunday calling for Abe to step down to take account for the swathe of recent LDP-linked controversies, which also included the manner in which the "conspiracy" bill was forced into law by dodging some upper house legislative protocols, as well as the embarrassment caused to the party just days before the election by Defense Minister Tomomi Inada.

"Inada offering her resignation for saying at a stump speech that the Self-Defense Forces supported the LDP, in flagrant contravention of Japan's Self-Defense Forces Law which calls for political neutrality of government institutions, may have gone some way towards restoring the public's faith in Abe and his cabinet," Muramatsu said.

"Meanwhile, Hakubun Shimomura, who's on his way out of the assembly, has also hurt the party's already tainted image, for being embroiled in a hefty political funds scandal dating back to when he was education minister. And the public's simply had enough," the expert said, adding that a junior female LDP lawmaker stepping down for assaulting one of her secretaries had also done little to improve the party's image.

With apologies from Abe abound ahead of the election for his handling of contentious questions from opposition lawmakers in the Diet in a harsh and sometimes rude manner, experts predict that while the LDP will retain its Komeito ally in national politics, Abe and the ruling party will now be going through a period of deep introspection to assess how to win back the public's trust.

To achieve this now lofty goal, Abe must hold the electorate in greater esteem and not run parliament as if it was his own private club, political watchers have said.

"Since he returned to power in 2012, Abe pledged to place the top priority on economic policy issues during election campaigns. Once the elections were over, however, he pushed through pieces of legislation that raise serious constitutional issues, such as the state secrets protection law and the new national security law," the daily newspaper Asahi Shimbun said in an article on the matter.

Even though many members of the public and opposition party lawmakers voiced concerns about these laws and pointed out problems with them, Abe didn't spend much time trying to win public understanding for them, the article continued.

"Instead, he used the ruling camp's majority in both Diet chambers to have these bills enacted on the grounds that lawmakers devoted a certain number of hours to deliberating them. The Diet represents the people, who collectively have sovereign power. Behind the opposition parties are large numbers of voters."

"Abe appears to have forgotten these basic principles of democracy," suggested the popular daily.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)