U.S.-Saudi relations might never be the same again

Former U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2018. /VCG

**Editor's note: **Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

The U.S.-Saudi strategic partnership might never be the same again after America's intelligence community claimed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was personally responsible for the grisly murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in late 2018. The Biden administration subsequently imposed what the media described as the so-called "Khashoggi ban" against select Saudi nationals that it claims were involved in this incident but declined to personally punish MBS because of what White House spokesman Jen Psaki said were the country's "national interests."

These dramatic developments come against the backdrop of the U.S. efforts to reengage with Saudi rival Iran over the nuclear deal and follow America's recently changed policy towards the conflict in Yemen. Washington suspended support for active combat operations there as well as arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It also delisted the Ansarullah (popularly described in the media as the "Houthis") from the State Department's previous designation as a terrorist organization. These steps make it more difficult for Saudi Arabia to wage what many regard as its proxy war with Iran in the neighboring country, a description that Tehran denies.

In any case, it's clear that U.S.-Saudi relations have unexpectedly become more complicated than ever. This decades-long strategic partnership is at risk of unraveling as a result of the Biden administration's recent moves. Their combined impact suggests that the U.S. is seeking to recalibrate its regional strategy from its erstwhile dependence on Saudi security concerns in the Gulf. Some critics have previously claimed that the U.S. puts Saudi interests above its own in this part of the world, sometimes even hypocritically turning a blind eye to democracy and human rights issues that it would normally criticize if other countries committed them.

A picture of Saudi journalist Jamal Kashoggi is displayed during a ceremony marking the one-year anniversary of his death, near the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, October 2, 2019. /AP

That approach is gradually changing as the Biden administration seemingly attempts to restore a semblance of balance to America's regional approach. Its policy reversal on Yemen suggests that it's no longer as sensitive to Saudi security concerns as before, instead prioritizing the humanitarian element of that conflict after the war has turned into what the UN previously called the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

On the security front, the Biden Administration's eagerness to reengage with Iran on the nuclear issue shows its intent to balance security concerns across the region. The Saudis have consistently been against any such deals with Iran, yet the Kingdom is increasingly being sidelined in this respect as Washington pays less attention to its concerns, just like the previous Obama Administration which was responsible for the nuclear pact in the first place. From the Saudi perspective, the U.S. isn't as reliable of a strategic partner as before, which might encourage the kingdom to diversify from its prior strategic dependence on American support.

Riyadh is already moving in this direction after it recently enhanced relations with Beijing and Moscow over the past couple of years. China is becoming one of its most important economic partners, both in terms of Beijing's rising energy imports from the country and its interest in pairing MBS' Vision 2030 model of development with the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). As for Russia, Saudi King Salman's historic vision to Moscow in October 2017 saw the clinching of a major arms deal which later led to the country exporting state-of-the-art Solntsepek rocket launchers to the Kingdom in 2019.

Looking ahead, it can be expected that Gulf geopolitics will continue to change as the Biden administration's values-driven foreign policy and pragmatic outreaches to Iran push Saudi Arabia further away from Washington. Riyadh will probably respond to these developments by more confidently reaching out to Beijing and Moscow, which don't manipulatively attach any "democracy" or "human rights" strings to their foreign policies. It's unclear how the U.S. would respond to improved Chinese-Saudi and Russian-Saudi relations, but hopefully it won't try to meddle in them out of jealousy since all such speculative attempts are doomed to fail.

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