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Israeli citizens may be heading out to vote in June 2015, if politicians can't come up with an agreed formula for the 2015 budget.
In 2012, early elections were announced due to disagreements over the budget. Amid the current fight over the defense establishment's demand for a higher budget following the military campaign in Gaza, and the treasury's objection, the political mechanism is currently at a standstill.
The issue is of main concern to the Israeli citizens and this battle's outcome would determine whether 2015 would be a repeat of 2012. THE 2015 BUDGET BATTLE - WHO V.S. WHO
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yair Lapid are the main figures in this economic and political battle. The defense establishment wants 5.5 billion U.S. dollars added to its budget, at the expense of cuts to other ministries, a higher deficit and possibly raising taxes. Netanyahu is rooting for the defense establishment, while Lapid is with the treasury who objects to this increase.
Lapid, head of the largest party in the Knesset (parliament) ( his Yesh Atid party has 19 seats in the parliament, whereas the Likud has 18 seats at present time), can break up the coalition if he chooses to withdraw, if Netanyahu does not come up with an alternative, which will mean replacing Lapid's party with two or three other parties, a very difficult task in a fragmented Knesset.
Netanyahu, who stresses his experience in the defense front in election campaigns, said right after the war in Gaza that "defense spending comes first and foremost," whereas Lapid was given his electorate's confidence as running on the ticket of the social- economic agenda.
The disagreements between Lapid and Netanyahu had brought the political system to a standstill. No cabinet meeting was held since August 31. According to an Israeli official, the secretariat of the government notified the ministers the cancelation of two recent meetings was the result of the budget disagreements.
"Netanyahu and Lapid are holding the entire political sphere at a standstill, using the 2015 budget as their political hostage," an Israeli official told Xinhua.
Economic pundit Nechamia Stressler, who writes for the Ha'aretz daily, notes in his column that the quarrel over defense versus civilian spending is a battle over who will be the upcoming prime minister of Israel in the next elections.
"There's a so-called battle between Lapid and Netanyahu on economic issues: Lapid is willing to increase the deficit and Netanyahu wants to keep the deficit low. Lapid is against a big increase to the defense establishment and wants to advance his zero VAT program to help young couples purchase apartments, while Netanyahu is against it. But it's a bluff," he wrote.
"It is a political and cynical argument revolving around the next elections -- under which ticket each one would run for office. Lapid is going for the 'social' leader who cares for the middle class while Netanyahu is 'Mr. Security,'" Stressler said, adding that this political battle "is bringing us to the verge of an economic crisis, as Netanyahu and Lapid are not cooperating." DEFENSE V.S. CIVILIAN SPENDING
The timing of this clash is not coincidental. In Aug. 26, the 50-day offensive in Gaza ended with a ceasefire. Tens of thousands of reserve soldiers were summoned to service (and were absent from their workplaces). Iron Dome anti-missile batteries intercepted thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip and Israel pound Gaza by heavy artillery in return. In August, Governor of the Bank of Israel Karnit Flug said the costs of the war might accumulate to up to five billion shekels (1.45 billion U.S dollars).
Netanyahu said that "it's not responsible to be against increasing the defense budget" amid the security threats, possibly referring to Lapid's objection to the budget boost.
However, the argument over what should be higher on the priorities list, the spending on security or civilian purposes, is not a new one to the Israeli society.
"The public dialogue about the defense spending is an old issue in the Israeli society," Dr. Cello Rosenberg, a historian specializing in national security from the Tel Aviv University told Xinhua.
"The Israeli citizen, without knowing the essence of the budget, doesn't question the paradigm that we live on our sword, that we are surrounded by enemies and that in order to be prepared, we must spend a lot of money," he explains. "But the most obvious result is that nothing is left for civilian infrastructure: education, welfare, health, proper quality of living," Rosenberg adds.
However, the topic did arise to the collective consciousness in the summer of 2011, in which hundreds of thousands protested over the spiraling costs of living, lack of affordable housing and deterioration in the state of various services.
Some Israelis started to question the internal distribution of the defense budget (the current budget for the Israel Defense Forces stands at 17 billion U.S. dollars), which is not available for the public. Specifically, criticism arose over ballooning salaries and pensions for professional military men.
However, it appears most Israelis are convinced in the necessity of higher defense spending, which is not surprising, given there have were three campaigns in Gaza in the past six years, along with threats from neighboring Syria and Lebanon, ruled by Hezbollah.
"The factors in the defense establishment are powerful and managed to quash the conclusions of the social justice movement," Dr. Rosenberg believes, as most Israelis still live under the constant fear of war. WILL THERE BE ELECTIONS SOON?
So will there be elections soon? Zvi Zarchia, a political correspondent for The Marker economic daily, said many politicians will not hurry to go for another election soon.
"There are a lot of parties in the parliament, a lot of new parliament members. Most of them will not hurry to go for elections again and part from their seat, as they will face internal elections in their parties," he explained.
"Netanyahu, Lieberman, Lapid -- all of these politicians in fact have been either down in the polls or stagnating. The only one who got stronger was Bennett. So this whole affair may very well end in a compromise, leaning more towards the defense establishment's side," Zarchia said.
Economic pundits argues that as the costs of conducting early elections and keeping the country at a standstill during the political campaign will be catastrophic to the country's already slowing economy and politicians will be cautious about being signaled as those pushing for earlier elections.
"Either Lapid gets what he wants or he'll withdraw from the opposition to build himself up from there. Netanyahu will bend Lapid or he'll work around the clock to get the ultra-orthodox inside the cabinet, along with the Labor party," Nachmias said. The ultra-orthodox members of parliament may not hurry to join Netanyahu's cabinet, following an inscription bill the prime minister supported for ultra-orthodox youth.
"It's hard to say what will develop out of all of this, but Netanyahu is an experienced politician and is working to assure he has all options out on the open for him. He doesn't believe that in the end of the day that Lapid will bolt the coalition," an Israeli official told Xinhua.
"The outcomes of this quarrel will be decided by how far Lapid and Netanyahu are willing to go with their agenda, and how they both estimate their chances in an upcoming elections and their alternatives. It is a personal battle that these two have total control over," he added.
