The Jakarta Post: Between threat of radicalized IS supporters and homegrown terrorists

(THEJAKARTAPOST)TheinfluenceoftheIslamicState(IS)inIndonesiahasbecomemoreapparentalongwiththerapidincreaseofradicalizationwithinsocietysinceISdeclaredacaliphateinJune2014,theyearthatmarkedtheriseofoneofthemostdeadliestterrorgroupsevertoexist.

ByDecember2015,about800IndonesianshadbeenreportedtohavedepartedforSyriaandIraq,with169peoplebeingcaughtontheTurkey-SyriaborderanddeportedbytheTurkishgovernment,beforethesepotentialforeignfightershadthechancetojoinIS,accordingtotheNationalCounterterrorismAgency(BNPT).

However,theexactnumberofradicalizedIndonesiansreturningfromtheconflictzonesbeforeJoko"Jokowi"WidodotookoverthepresidencyonOct.20,2014,isunknown.TheformeradministrationfailedtokeeptrackofIndonesiansdepartingtojoinISafterthegroupannouncedthatitwouldrestoreAllah'sruleonEarththroughsharia.

Overtheweekend,theNationalPolice'sDensus88counterterrorismsquadseizedbomb-makingequipmentandarrestedninepeopleacrossJavawhoweresuspectedofbeingamongthemorethan1,000localISsupportersallegedlyplanningtoattackgovernmentofficials,includingJokowiandminorityShiiteMuslims.

Oneofthehomegrownterroristgroups,theSantoso-ledEastIndonesiaMujahidinbasedinPoso,CentralSulawesi,stillposesamajorthreattothegovernmentasthegroupwasresponsibleforthekillingofseveralpoliceofficersandlocalfarmersin2015andhaspledgeallegiancetoIS.

Withnationalsecurityatstake,counterterrorismforcesaresteppingupmeasurestoprotectthenationagainstpossiblemilitantattacksthathavethepotentialtoplungethenationintoviolence.

Homegrownterroristgroupsversusradicalizedreturnees

ThehistoryofhomegrownradicalIslamicgroupsdatesbacktothelate1940s,whenKartosuwiryoledtheIslamicStateofIndonesia(NII)movement,aradicalgroupthatledtotheformationoftheal-QaedaaffiliatedJamaahIslamiyah(JI)in1993,agroupresponsibleforthedeadly2002Balibombings.

SinceJI'scharismaticleaderAbuBakarBa'asyirwasarrestedinAugust2010,expertsbelievethatyoungerJImembersseparatedfromthegroupwhenseniormembersdecidedtolielow,astheybelievedthatIndonesiawasnolongeralandforjihad.

ThisledtotheriseoftheEastIndonesiaMujahidin-aterroristgroupthatallegedlycreatedterrorinPoso-ledbytheformerJImemberswhoarepresentlybeinghuntedby1,500securitypersonnel.

"Fromtheperspectiveofhumansafety,themostdangerousarehomegrownterroristgroups,"terroristexpertRakyanAdibratatoldthejakartapost.com.

WiththethreatofradicalizedIndonesianreturneesincreasingoverthepastfewmonths,Rakyansaiditwasactuallyhomegrownterroristgroupsthathadinitiallyspreadradicalideologyamongmembers,leadingthemtodepartasforeignterroristfightersforISonlytoreturntobeathreattothenation.

Meanwhile,aterroristexpertfromYayasanPrasastiPerdamaian(YPP),TaufikAndrie,saidradicalizedIndonesianreturneesposedabiggerthreattothenationastheycouldcontributetocapacitybuilding,networkingandpersuadinghomegrownterroristgroupstosupportIS.

EventhoughmanyhomegrownterroristgroupssuchasMujahidinpromotedangerousideologythatincludesuseofviolencetoachievetheirmeans,TaufiksaidthatunlikeIS,whichhatedallWestern-influencedsystems,thesegroups'biggerenemiesweremainlypoliceandlawenforcers.

"InPoso,liketheSantoso-ledgroup,theyaremorecontextualasthegroupconsistsofpeoplewhohavebeeninvolvedinconflictsandsufferedfrominjusticeandviolence,"Taufiksaid.

Similarly,aterroristexpertandformerNIImember,Al-Chaidar,saidthatbesidesfightinginitsownwaytoestablishacaliphate,MujahidinwasformedtotakerevengeforpredecessorwhowereattackedbypoliceandlawenforcersduringaMuslim-ChristianconflictinPosothatclaimedthelivesofatleast1,000peoplefrom1998to2002.

"MujahidinmembersstillholdgrudgetowardChristians.TheyhavenotdepartedforSyria,buttheyareISsupportswhoarespreadacrossIndonesia,"Al-Chaidarsaid.

HometovariousradicalIslamicgroups,Indonesiahasexperiencedterroristattackstargetingpublicplacesformorethanadecade.SincethedeadlyBaliattack,thepolicehavemanagedtocounteranddestroyhomegrownmilitantcells.However,theriseofIShasbroughtnewchallengesforthemtoimprovetheircounterterrorismstrategyoncemore.

Re-thinkingnewapproachestocounterradicalization

AsimilarapproachshouldbeimplementedbytheBNPTtocountertheintensifieddisseminationofterroristgroups'propagandathroughtheinternetandsocialmedia,Rakyansaid,asthecurrentcounter-narrativemeasurestakenbytheBNPTthroughitsonlineplatformcalled"PeacefulYearinCyberspace"hadbeendeemedweakandineffectiveinpreventingradicalization.

AccordingtoRakyan,counter-narrativemeasuresagainsttheIScampaigninIndonesiawereinsteadactivelytakenbyotherradicalgroupsthatareagainstforminganIScaliphate,suchasJabhatal-NusraandseniormembersofJIwhowereagainstISbutstillwantedtoestablishacaliphateinIndonesia.

"Intheend,thiswillbringmuchthesameresult.EithermembersofthepublicwhoempathizewithISwillnotbelievethegroupanymoreortheywilljoinJabhatal-Nusraorothernon-ISrebels,"saidRakyan.

Indonesiashouldengagemoderategroupstoactivelytakecounter-narrativemeasuresintheirrespectiveareas,Rakyansaid,whileatthesametimecooperatewithinternetserviceproviderstotackleradicalizationthroughtheinternet.

Australiaadoptedthismethod,Rakyansaid,asthegovernmentengagedallmoderategroupsinthecountrytocreatecounter-narrativemeasuresincooperationwithgiantsearchengineGoogleandithadbeenveryeffectiveincurbingthespreadofradicalideology.

"WhenpeoplesearchkeywordsrelatedtoISandotherradicalgroups,page1and2inGooglewilldisplaycounter-narrativemeasuresinsteadofinformationonthosegroups,"saidRakyan.

InstituteforPolicyAnalysisofConflict(IPAC)directorSidneyJonesalsotoldthejakartapost.comrecentlythatvariousradicalmediaoutletsdisseminatedISpropagandabyre-makingvideosoraudiostatementsinIndonesianandspreadingthelinksthroughtheinterneteveryday,makingeffectiveuseofIndonesiaasthefourthleadingFacebookuserintheworldwithover84percentofusersactiveTwitterusersby2014.

BNPTdeputyforinternationalrelationsInsp.Gen.PetrusReinhardGolosesaidhehadaddressedthisissue,addingthatthecounter-terrorismbodylookedforwardtocooperatingwithothercountriestocloselymonitorwebsitesinordertocurbthespreadofradicalismthroughtheinternet.

Potentialradicalgroupattacks,newmethodadopted

WithISnowhavingthousandsofsupportersacrossIndonesiaaswellasotherradicalgroupssuchasMujahidin,expertshavewarnedthatthethreatofterroristattacksinDecember2015couldbebiggeranddifferentfrompreviousyears.

TaufiksaidthatwhilepreviouslychurchesandChristiangroupswerethemaintargetsofradicalIslamicgroups,threatsofterroristattacksthisyearwereposedbymorediversegroupsthathaddifferentviewsofperceivedenemies,astherewerethosewhointendedtoattackgovernmentofficialsandminorityShiiteMuslimsalso.

CounterterrorismforcessucceededinarrestingninesuspectedMuslimmilitantswhowereallegedlyplanningbombattacksintownsacrossJavalastweekend,withfourofthemsuspectedofbeingJImembers.

However,astheNationalPolicespokespersonsaidtheforcehadcaptured"onlysubordinates"ofanetworkofISsupporters,Taufiksaidsupporterswhoescapedtheraidscouldbemoredangerousastheywouldstrivetofinishwhattheiraccomplicesstarted.

"RightnowthethreatsareISsupportersandthoseaffiliatedwithAmanAbdurahman[vocalIndonesianpromoterofIS],"saidTaufik.

Meanwhile,RakyanwarnedthatISmightlaunchsporadicattacksinsteadofcentralizedbombings,withpossibleactiveshootersassignedtocreateterrorinpublicplacesoratreligioussites.

CitingtheParisattack,thedeadliestattackonFrenchsoilsinceWorldWarIIthatISclaimedresponsibilityfor,Rakyansaidthatsimultaneouscoordinatedterroristattackscouldbecomearathereffectivemethodtodistractgovernmentandsecurityofficials.

"ImaginefiveshootersatfivemallsinJakartaandmassshootingshappeningsimultaneously.ThisisabiggerdangerandwouldcreatemassfearequaltothatcausedbytheParisattackandBalibombings,"saidRakyan.