Int'l report warns against violence in West Bank

Fragile calm in the West Bank could end if relevant parties do not get beyond managing conflict triggers to address root issues, an international report warned Wednesday.

The report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group examines political, economic and security conditions in the West Bank, as the United States is trying to restart peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel after years of stalemate.

The 30-page report, "Buying Time? Money, Guns and Politics in the West Bank," says that many conditions for an uprising are in place, such as political discontent, the leadership's loss of legitimacy, hopelessness, economic fragility, increased violence and an overwhelming sense that security cooperation serves Israeli rather than Palestinian interest.

The report admits that there are several factors arguing against an imminent escalation in the occupied West Bank. For example, the split between Fatah and Hamas renders popular mobilization dangerous to either regime; the Palestinians remain tired from the consequences of the second intifada; and foreign assistance has helped reshape the West Bank's political economy while giving most of its residents an interest in preserving the system.

To help stabilize the West Bank, the report urged Israel to regularize tax revenue transfers to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), rein in settler attacks against Palestinians and curtail incursions by its security forces into ostensibly Palestinian-controlled areas.

"There is an understandable temptation to renew negotiations as a way to address -- or at least distract attention from -- the deep causes of rising West Bank instability," said Nathan Thrall of the ICG's Middle East division. "But a breakdown in talks would risk accelerating the very dynamics that the negotiations are meant to forestall."