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By APD writer Wang Peng
German Chancellor Angela Merkel Monday said her efforts to form a three-way coalition government had failed, thrusting Germany into a political crisis and pushing Europe’s largest economy closer to a possible new election.
The situation
What does the collapse of the talks mean to Merkel? Is it the worst crisis for Merkel? What does it tell us about the current German political situation?
Undoubtedly, this is a terrible political failure for Merkel. With no other viable coalition in sight, Germany may be forced to hold new elections that risk being as inconclusive as September’s polls. As SBS media comments, Europe’s largest economy now faces weeks, if not months of paralysis with a lame-duck government that is unlikely to take bold policy action.
Merkel had been forced to seek an alliance with an unlikely group of parties after September’s elections left her without a majority.
But after more than a month of grueling negotiations, the leader of the pro-business Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP), Christian Lindner, walked out of talks, saying there was no "basis of trust" to forge a government with Merkel’s conservative alliance CDU-CSU and ecologist Greens.
The future of Merkel and the EU
What will happen next from here? The Germany’s second largest party Social Democrats has ruled out returning to a coalition government, how possible is it that Merkel would form a minority government with the Greens?
First, at the domestic level, observers generally agree that this defeat is likely to lead to the resumption of the general election in Germany. If so, Merkel, the current leaders of the coalition and the leader of Germany, will face a major test because she has been tempted to create a legend for the fourth term.
In the negotiations and bargains on this issue, the divergence between the three parties mainly concentrates on three areas: the European policy (especially the Euro policy), the energy and environment policy (which is the consistent demand of the Green Party), and the immigration/ refugee policy. The tripartite views on the three topics are difficult to unify, so the FDP decided to leave.
In this regard, will Merkel’s legend be terminated? Maybe, but chances are still available. For example, as the Wall Street Journal argues if Merkel could convince her allies to stay within her camp as soon as possible, it is possible to avoid the fresh election. Of course, there is no ‘free lunch’ in political arena, which means that Merkel must make major concessions in either policy making or the contribution of power and seats among collision factions.
What worries the public even more is that if the re-election comes, the situation may eventually benefit the far-right populist “Alternative für Deutschland” (AfD). Although AfD has always denied its own ideas and organization with the notorious Nazis, they still cannot dispel fears.
Future of Merkel and EU
As Western media comment, Merkel’s ruling experience is the richest compared with leaders of other major western powers such as Macron from France and Trump from the U.S. After all, when Merkel won the campaign of the German Chancellor in 2005, Macron just graduated from college while Trump was just a real estate tycoon, as well as a TV show star. For more than a decade, Merkel has not only proved her ability to govern Germany, but also proved her “banner role” in maintaining the liberal international order of Europe and the (western) world.
As a result, analysts generally believe that under the current tide of protectionism, isolationism and populism prevailing in the world (mainly in Western countries), the successor to Merkel will only be more conservative and isolated than ever, rather than take an aggressive approach to globalization or EU integration. In one word, this break of Merkel’s “Jamaica Talk” increases the uncertainty of both the EU and the world.
Wang Peng is the Research Fellow at the Chahar Institute and China Institute of Fudan University.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
