Analysis: Third Palestinian Intifada not probable despite recent protests

text

The death of a Palestinian inmate in Israeli jails on Saturday and the ongoing hunger strike of thousands of prisoners angered Palestinians and triggered growing violence and protests. However, observers said that it won't lead to a third Intifada (popular uprising) following the first one in 1987 and the second in 2000.

Clashes between the Israeli soldiers and the Palestinian protesters dominated the West Bank in recent days.

Israel had expressed concerns over a third possible Intifada in the West Bank right after a Palestinian prisoner died in its jails. According to Israeli media reports, Israel had urged the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) to work on calming down the situation on the ground and prevent more violence.

Iyad Barghouti, a political analyst from the West Bank said that Israel is concerned about a third Intifada because it would disturb its settlement plans and cause diplomatic troubles for it amid insecurity in the Middle East.

Ahmed Rafuq Awad, a political science professor at Beir Zeit University in the West Bank told Xinhua that the development on the ground are ripe to lead to a third uprising amid the large increase of settlement and a stalled Middle East peace process.

However, Awad said the PNA doesn't want a third Intifada " because the PNA is afraid of its consequences and it contradicts with its diplomatic efforts to exert more pressure on Israel."

The last two uprisings failed to end the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories and didn't help the Palestinians to establish their independent Palestinian state. During 1987 and 2000 uprisings, 5,000 Palestinians and 500 Israelis were killed in about 140 attacks.

Palestinian officials had repeatedly said that they do not prefer a third uprising; however, they held Israel responsible for the deteriorated situation.

Meanwhile, the PNA has also been focusing on gaining the recognition of a non-member observer state at the UN and joining other UN organizations.

Observers also believe that the internal division between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party and Hamas which rules the Gaza Strip would prevent the breaking out of a third uprising.

Talal Oukal, a political analyst from Gaza told Xinhua that " Amid the ongoing division and disputes between Fatah and Hamas, a third Intifada is ruled out because it would strengthen Hamas' popular support in the area at the expense of Fatah's popularity."