APD | Whom Russia, China and Iran want to see as next US President?

Editor's Note:

The writer, Mr. I. Hussain Janjua is a senior media professional and analyst having experience of research & broadcast journalism in different organisations. He is a non-resident fellow of Chengdu Institute of World Affairs (CIWA). (Email: [email protected]; twitter: @ihussainjanjua)

Will Russia want the US to continue as the world's leading power? Does China want Joe Biden to be successful? These are the questions that are hounding the US intelligence on the eve of the presidential elections scheduled for November 03.

The top slot of the US intelligence while referring to Russia, China and Iran has warned that external forces overtly or covertly will try to influence voters to vote in favor of one of the candidates - each having her own target and unique capabilities.

In the 2016 presidential elections, all the fingers were pointed at Russia for allegedly influencing the elections in favor of President Donald Trump while the US intelligence firmly believed in this theory.

It was an attempt to give the impression that meetings were held between Trump’s team members and Russian personnel, Hillary Clinton’s election campaign and Democrats suffered cyber attacks, voters’ database in different states was targeted and a on internet a campaign was launched to highlight a political party’s agenda whether true or false.

Now in 2020, Joe Biden has replaced Hillary Clinton as Democrat candidate. A report released by head of US Counter Intelligence and Security Center William R. Evanina says Russia is using such tactics with basic intention of maligning the former Vice President.

According to US secret agency FBI head Christopher Ray, Russia did not restrain itself from interference and what they did during 2018 Congress election was, in a way, a dress rehearsal for the bigger show in 2020.

However, at the beginning of this year a spokesperson of the Kremlin had described the allegations as baseless having nothing to do with the reality that Russia has been interfering in other countries elections.Irrespective of this whether Russia wants Trump heading the US for second term or not, analysts have been presenting another point of view that Russia sets bigger targets for its opponent countries to cause destabilization through anarchy. For example, the European Union in a document this year has accused that Russia has initiated a campaign to spread fake corona news to create difficulties for the European Union though Russia has also described it as baseless.On the other hand, Joe Biden recently labelling Russia as an opponent warned that if Moscow continued its interference it will have to pay the price while President Trump has been underplaying the accusations of Russian involvement thus presenting a different perspective as compared to the analysis of intelligence experts.

While some important members of the Trump administration are of the view that in fact China, not Russia could become a threat for the forthcoming presidential election.

US Attorney General Willian Bar says he himself has seen the intelligence reports and reached the same conclusion but head of US House of Representative Intelligence Committee Adam Sheff, a Democrat, has accused Willian Bar of lying. However, Mr Willian Bar says that the US intelligence believes that China would prefer Mr Trump as Beijing thinks that if he lost the election uncertainty would come into play.

China too has denied the accusations saying Beijing has no interest in the internal affairs of other countries. However, President Trump expressed his mind when he retweeted an article published by the extreme left-wing US website claiming that China wants to see Joe Biden as the next US president. The US-China relations at the moment are at the lowest ebb --- from corona virus to enforcement of security law in Hong Kong, every issue is cause of concern.

Joe Biden, believed to have soft corner for China, has to clarify again and again and make promises that he would be adopting strict policy on human rights and all other issues viz-a-viz China. But Democrats say that Russians are more aggressive when it comes to the elections and their focus is the same.

In 2016, the US government and social media were not active enough to effectively deal with Russian interference as at that time a Democrat leader’s email was hacked and the information was leaked but unlike in the past the same is continuing in quite a disciplined manner.

The US security institutions are quite careful not to be dragged in party politics but at the same time some circles are also raising concerns about Iranian influence in the changed environment where rules of the game have changed with fake material becoming increasingly ominous.

Mr. Evanina in his report says Iran is against President Trump’s second term in office as Tehran believes in case of his continuity pressure on Iran would continue, therefore, she will try to influence the presidential elections through spreading wrong and fake news using social media.

Substantiating US intelligence allegations world’s leading Computer Company Microsoft has said that hackers from these three countries are on spying missions and are following those who are participating in the elections.

But all these views until something concrete comes to the fore, however, it may be ploy of the US intelligence to trigger sentiments of the voters in favor of any particular candidate.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)