Roundup: Influential COVID-19 model projects 134,000 deaths in U.S. by early August

An influential COVID-19 model produced by the University of Washington revised its projections on Monday, estimating over 134,000 COVID-19 deaths in the United States through August.

The model, from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), projected 134,475 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, with a range of 95,092 to 242,890.

"These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics," said the IHME in a release.

The revised projections reflect rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus, according to the IHME.

Increases in testing and contact tracing, along with warming seasonal temperatures -- factors that could help slow transmission -- do not offset rising mobility, thereby fueling a significant increase in projected deaths, said the IHME.

"In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

"We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer," he said.

New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and Michigan are projected to have the highest cumulative COVID-19 death tolls through August.

While these states have generally been among those with the highest predicted tolls from COVID-19, each of their cumulative death projections have increased by at least 2,000, said the IHME.

"This is due in part to updates to death data and modeling approaches, with the latter now estimating longer epidemic peaks and slower downward trajectories following those peaks in many locations," said the release.

The updated modeling approach indicates that the United States appears to be in a prolonged epidemic peak, averaging near or over 2,000 predicted COVID-19 deaths a day for the last few weeks, according to the IHME.

"Our understanding of the effect of temperature on transmission of the virus is rapidly evolving," Murray said. "At the moment, we believe that the effects of temperature on transmission are important, yet minimal. As we move into summer and temperatures rise, we will learn more and will revise our projections if it is statistically relevant."

After weeks of shutdown measures, many U.S. states have begun to slowly open up. But health experts have expressed concern that premature opening could lead to a spike in new COVID-19 infections.

"Many states that reopened economies are still seeing rising COVID-19 cases and deaths. Reopening may lead to sharp increase in new cases and local outbreaks, which may cause significant rise of nationwide COVID-19 cases and deaths," Zhang Zuofeng, professor of epidemiology and associate dean for research with the school of public health at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Xinhua.