Russia-Iran partnership in the Middle East is getting more complicated

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin arrived Tehran November 1 where he holds talks with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei that will focus on the nuclear issue, their cooperation in Syria, as well as economic ties.

He will also hold trilateral talks with Rouhani and lham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, according to the Kremlin’s spokesman.

Although Russia and Iran have many common interests – developing bilateral economic and military cooperation, fighting terrorism and instability in the Middle East, etc. – it does not make them a perfect couple which lives in peace and harmony.

The rocky history of Russia-Iran relations and often conflicting interests in the regional affairs make their partnership more of a marriage of convenience.

As for now, despite being two major backers of the Syrian regime, Moscow and Iran have quite enough tensions on that very issue. The important matters that unite them in the region are to confront externally-inspired insurgency in the region (this is how both countries see it), to fight terrorism, and to keep territorial integrity of the regional states.

Once those issues will be successfully tackled there are going to be less incentives for both to cooperate on the regional matters.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev pose for a picture during a meeting in Tehran, Iran November 1, 2017.

This is why as the military phase of the Syrian conflict is coming to the end, the next stage of discussions on the post-war reconstruction in Syria, political reforms and the role of external powers there will only increase the tensions between Russia and Iran.

Therefore, it is very likely that Putin and Iranian leadership will discuss their future steps and strategies with regard to the post-war Syria to minimize the tension.

Given the fact that Tehran has already built quite solid military presence in Syria it is highly unlikely that it is going to give up on the investments it has already made in Syria. Above all Iran delivers financial and humanitarian aid, and helping to provide social services in Syria.

For Russia, it is a big challenge as Iran’s increased influence is a major security concern for the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia with which Moscow tries to build and maintain constructive dialog.

It puts Russia in a tricky position where it should balance between them. As regional actors see Russia as the closest Iran ally they expect Moscow to consider their concerns and exert its influence to keep Iran in check.

The timing of the visit is also quite important. It comes after a series of high-profile visits happened recently in the region. Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov was on a diplomatic tour to the GCC states in the end of August.

In September Putin visited Turkish President Erdogan. A historic visit of the Saudi Arabia King Salman to Moscow took place in the beginning of October. Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu recently visited Syria, Israel and Qatar.

Apart of discussing bilateral ties, economic and military cooperation the main focus of those talks was on the major regional issues, primarily Syria, fighting against terrorism and addressing each country’s own security concerns.

Among all those issues Iran was also high on the agenda. For the Syrian government, it is an important backer which provides not only military but also economic, financial and humanitarian aid. For Turkey, Iran is becoming more and more important especially in the light of the Kurdish question and dealings in Iraq and Syria. For Israel and Saudi Arabia, Tehran is a number one enemy in the region and its growing influence in the Middle East is among major security concerns for both Tel Aviv and Riyadh. They see Russia as a major power which can keep Iran in check and put certain limitations on its growing regional influence.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani in Tehran, Iran November 1, 2017.

On the one hand, it allows Moscow to use its position to influence behavior of its partners in its own interest. But on the other hand, it puts Russia in a rather tricky position which requires it to take into account usually conflicting interests of all actors involved (Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, etc.) while looking for a compromise. Thus, any Moscow’s mistake or leap towards one side or another might be seen by its partners as a move against their interests. Therefore, it makes it a very challenging task.

Besides, Putin’s visit to Iran is very important for another two reasons. Firstly, it concludes another series of high-profile talks and gives a start to another political cycle which will show how the policies of the regional powers are going to change or not.

And secondly, it demonstrates Moscow’s attention to every major power involved in the regional crises. Since Russian senior officials held talk with Israelis and Saudis who are Iran’s major foes it is very important for Tehran to discuss it with Moscow as it will affect its policies in the region.

The visit is also quite noticeable as it comes against US President Donald Trump’s decision not to verify implementation of the Iranian nuclear deal (JCOPA), although IAEA says Iran is complying with the deal. Such move creates a momentum for closer cooperation between Russia, Iran and the European countries who strongly supports the deal.

Interestingly, that right on the eve of Putin’s visit to Tehran, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with the Russia’s new ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov who used to be a deputy defense minister in charge of the international military-technical cooperation and liaisons with the foreign defense ministries.

Thus, it is very likely that the two discussed Iranian nuclear deal among other issues. According to Russia’s US embassy, Antonov also handed over to Tillerson a letter from the Russian parliamentarians which expressed concerns over the US intentions to quit the Iranian nuclear deal.

Putin's visit to Iran is likely to clarify both countries' future steps in post-war Syria, coordination in fighting ISIS and bilateral economic ties. Although Moscow and Tehran look like very close partners, especially in recent years, it does not mean that they do not have differences and tension with regard to the Middle East. And this is exactly what Putin and Iranian leaders are going to discuss.

(CGTN)