Kiwi economic growth to slow next year: forecast

New Zealand's economic recovery cycle has peaked and growth will moderate, but remain positive, according to an average of economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies on Monday.

Economic growth will moderate from 3.3 percent in the year ending March 2015 year to 2.9 percent and 2.2 percent in the following two years, and to 1.9 percent in 2018, according to the Consensus Forecasts from the independent New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER).

Economic growth would be broad based across household spending, investment, including the rebuilding of the earthquake-battered Canterbury region, and exports, but the pace would moderate as the Canterbury rebuild peaked, said a statement from the NZIER.

Inflation would accelerate over coming years, but remain comfortably contained within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 1- percent to 3-percent target band until early 2018.

Exports were likely to grow at around three percent a year for the next four years, partly supported by a forecast depreciation in the exchange rate, although the rate would remain at historically high levels.

The labor market would improve, with unemployment easing towards the past decade average of five percent by 2017.

Wages would grow at a reasonable 3.3 percent on average over the next three years, outpacing increases in the cost of living by 1.3 percent a year.

The government operating balance would be in surplus from 2015 and continue to improve thereafter, it said.