Russian military withdrawal is likely prelude to Syrian crisis settlement

Russia's sudden announcement of troops withdrawal from Syria sends a positive signal that a political settlement of the five-year-old crisis is in the offing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that the decision was discussed and coordinated with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad, adding that the fundamental tasks set for the Russian armed forces in Syria were resolved.

Analysts believe the Kremlin move, after the implementation of a cease-fire and the provision of humanitarian aid in Syria, is favorable for the ongoing peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland.

Calculated Move

Russian air force entered Syria on Sept. 30, 2015, to help the Syrian government, its long-time ally in the Middle East, repel a major offensive launched by the opposition and extremist groups.

Despite controversies and accidents, including the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane, the timely involvement has been proved effective as it allowed Syrian government ground troops to retake swaths of territory, further securing the Syrian government's position.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Monday that the Russian air force carried out 9,000 sorties in its five-month-long campaign, killing 2,000 rebel militants, including 17 field commanders.

It also helped Syrian troops reclaim 400 populated localities and more than 10,000 square km of land.

To safeguard those accomplishments, Putin said Russia will maintain a small military presence in its naval base in Syria's Tartus and airfield near Latakia.

"A part of our military group has been traditionally deployed in Syria for many years and now it will be tasked to fulfill a very important job of monitoring the cease-fire regime and creating conditions for the peace process," Putin said, hinting a comeback in case of deteriorating situation.

"The withdrawal of the Russian forces means a stability in the military situation, and a confidence in the balance of power, as there are no big battles, except for the Islamic State group," Syrian political expert Anas Joudeh said.

The Kremlin said it coordinated with the Syrian government on the matter, while Syrian official news outlets denied rumors that the withdrawal was caused by a fallout.

Syrian Information Minister said coordination between Moscow and Damascus is on the highest level and will remain so.

Good Signal

The Russian withdrawal is the latest indicator that Moscow and Washington have both agreed to a path to de-escalate the Syrian crisis, after the two world powers pushed for a universal cease-fire and humanitarian aid provision last month.

"I hope today's decision (of withdrawal) will be a good signal for all conflicting parties. I hope it will considerably increase trust of all participants in the process," Putin said in a meeting with his top brass.

Mahmud Muri, a Syrian opposition figure, told Xinhua in Damascus that Russia's withdrawal will surely be conducive in pushing forward the political solution.

"I think that Russia is trying to strip the opposition in Geneva from any pretext in the planned meeting on Tuesday," he said.

The White House said Monday that Russia's move is yet to be assessed.

"We will have to see exactly what Russia's intentions are," White House spokesman Josh Earnest told a daily briefing.

"It's hard for me to assess what sorts of implications this will have on the talks, what sort of change it will bring about to that dynamic," he said. Enditem