With Iran deal, political face of Mideast ready to be changed

Xinhua

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As Iran has finally come to terms with the world powers over its nuclear program after more than 18 months of marathon-like talks, a new era that could change the face of the Middle East region may well be opened.

As what is agreed, the 159-page Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, official name of the long-anticipated nuclear agreement, will remove all of the sanctions imposed on Iran if the Islamic Republic is proved to abide by the deal over the next ten years in a step-by-step fashion.

Over the past few days, almost all of the major powers in the region have spoken up about their opinions of nuclear agreement and the potential blessings or curses, it could bring to the region and the wider world.

Almost everyone in the world knows that Israel, a long-term sworn enemy of Iran, has never been a fan of such a deal, and Tuesday's announcement has indeed put Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, and his lieutenants over the edge. The Israeli leader simply labeled the nuclear accord as a mistake of "historic proportions," and vowed that his country, which he said will not be bound by the deal, will always defend itself, a pledge many believed as a hint of preemptive military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities.

According to the prime minister's logic, a perfect deal should deny Iran of any kind of rights to conduct nuclear activities, yet if that is made the condition of the talk, than no deal would be possible.

Compared to Israel's excessively blunt condemnation of the deal, the government of Saudi Arabia, Iran's another major adversary in this part of the world, has been rather implicit about its real emotions.

Officially, Riyadh has so far refrained from either directly endorsing or rejecting the deal. It said in a statement that Iran should use the nuclear deal to improve its own economic situation, and not to pursue "adventures" in the Middle East. The Kingdom also stressed the need for strong inspections, and the snap-back of sanctions should Iran violates the agreement.

Yet in an article published on a Saudi newspaper on Thursday, Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, an ex-ambassador to Washington, was apparently being honest. The former intelligence chief wrote that the deal will allow Iran to get an atomic bomb, and will wreak havoc in the Middle East, a region already plagued by conflicts, blaming Iran for contributing to the destabilization of the region.

Other key players in the region have sung the deal's praises. The Egyptian authorities welcome the agreement, hoping it would lead the Middle East to security and stability, while Turkey expects to tap into the potential business opportunities once sanctions against Iran are lifted.

In Damascus and Baghdad, two Shiite-Muslim ruled governments are exclusively elated to see the birth of the deal as a sanction- free Iran would be in a even stronger position to help them battle extremist jihadist groups including the Islamic State (IS) militants.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad congratulated his main ally Iran on the nuclear deal, while his government called the agreement a "historic" one. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said the deal "will spare the region the scourge of disasters, wars and conflicts, at a time when security and peace are much needed."

STRONGER IRAN-LED SHIITE CRESCENT

For all the time and despite all the twists and turns, what has kept Iran sitting through the tough negotiations is the Islamic Republic's aspirations to get rid of the sanctions that have crippled its economy, and taken a serious toll on people's lives.

Once the sanctions, especially the trade and investment embargoes, are cleared, Iran's vast oil resources will help the country emerge much stronger economically, and that strengthened economic muscle will turn into Iran's political clout in the world' s most volatile region, and render Tehran more powerful to underpin its allies in the area, including Syria, Iraq, Lebanon's Hezbollah, all parts of the so-called Iran-led Shiite Crescent, as well as Yemen's Houthi group, which has controlled most of the country.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday that his nation will "never stop supporting our friends in the region and the people of Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Lebanon."

However, the Gulf states and the West still worry that the agreement could make Iran more assertive in the region and may spur what they called Tehran's proxy wars there.

While, their concerns are somewhat excessive. Iran entered into the talks to revive its economy. To achieve that end, it has so much to do even with the removal of the sanctions. Therefore even if it is ready to continue backing its friends in the region, increased military confrontations with the Sunni Muslims will only do harm to Iran at a time when it still needs to work with the rest of the world to promote trade and economic cooperation.

Moreover, Iran's continued support to Syria and Iraq will also help the two governments to fight the IS militants, the U.S.-led international coalition has so far ineffectively countered.

Many experts also believe that one of the key reasons the Obama administration, which has stubbornly refused to send troops back to the Mideast battlefields, is willing to make so much concessions for the nuclear deal is that it wants to borrow Iran's hands to help it in uprooting the ferocious extremist group of jihadists that have become increasingly active.

CLOSER ISRAEL-ARAB TIES

As the deal is to be implemented, a mightier Tehran-headed Shiite alliance is very likely to help bring Israel and the Arab nations, particularly the Gulf countries closer.

Analysts believe that despite the fact that Israel and most of the Gulf nations will not engage in close official contacts publicly in the near future, not to mention restoring their diplomatic relations, they may choose to enhance their covert exchanges and links, including intelligence sharing.

In fact, Israel and Saudi Arabia have admitted earlier last month that they have held five secret meetings since the beginning of 2014 to discuss what they termed as the common threat Iran posses to the region.

Apart from the deal, the cost-conscious Middle East strategy of the Obama White House is another major factor that may turn Israel and the Gulf states into new allies.

In the minds of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the monarchs in the Gulf area, the U.S. leader has become untrustworthy, and the nuclear agreement Mr. Obama cares so much has put their national interests in jeopardy.

While it is easy to find Mr. Netanyhu's out-loud discontent toward the U.S. president, Saudi Arabia's growing disappointments in Washington are quite euphemistic and indirect. But the disgruntled Riyadh has certainly tried to tell the United States that it has lost confidence in it, and one clear evidence is that Saudi Arabia has signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia. Enditem