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Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi turned heads this week when he predicted the country's economy would not grow at all this year.
Renzi's prognostication is more pessimistic than Italy's National Statistics Institute, ISTAT, which still predicts the country's gross domestic product will grow compared to last year. The International Monetary Fund, which sees 0.3 percent growth, and the Bank of Italy, which predicts 0.2 percent growth, agree -- though both have lowered their forecasts in recent weeks.
Why the pessimism from Renzi?
"It's an expectations game," ABS Securities economic analyst Oliviero Fiorini told Xinhua. "There's probably still a chance for economic growth this year and if that happens, Renzi will be able to say the economy exceeded expectations. If it doesn't, at least his image as a straight shooter will be maintained."
The move comes as pollsters say approval levels for Renzi's reform agenda are starting to erode, even as the prime minister himself remains relatively popular.
According to new information from the polling company Ipsos, Renzi maintains the support of 64 percent of Italians, though his reforms fare less well: only 42 percent said they approved of his economic growth plans or his strategy to reform the public administration, while 48 percent said they had a positive view of his education reforms.
"The disconnect between approval levels for Renzi and for his governing policies has to have Renzi's team concerned," author and political scientist Rachel Malatesta said in an interview.
"I believe the bottom line is the economy," Malatesta continued. "Until the economy starts to turn around, there will be doubts about the prime minister's game plan."
Few predict the Renzi government is in danger of collapse. The prime minister's strong approval levels, the strong victory for his allies in May's European elections, and a lack of a viable alternative as prime minister are all working in Renzi's favor. But that could change if the perception grows that Renzi is unable to deliver on his ambitious promises.
That may be where the lower expectations fit in, according to Fiorini and Malatesta.
"It's unrealistic for the economy to grow as much as Renzi and most members of the government would like," Fiorini said. "But it may grow more than people expect it to, at least if expectations are tempered."
If the economy indeed fails to show positive growth in 2014, it will be the fifth time in seven years that was the case. Italy's economy is now 9 percent smaller than it was in 2008, when the economic crisis began and it is now about the same size it was in 2000. Industrial production is even worse, falling to levels not seen since the early 1980s.
