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Scientists say they have developed a way of showing people their personal risk of dying from coronavirus.
The University College London's
coronavirus
calculator factors in a person's age, sex and underlying health conditions, as well as the risk of infection and the strain on the NHS.
The
tool
was made public in a report in The Lancet, which says the team has used data from around 3.8 million health records and based its conclusions on England having a 10% infection rate and 20% of people having a high-risk condition.
At the same time, the team is warning their could be up to 73,000 excess deaths as a result of the
COVID-19
outbreak in the UK, depending on how the **lockdown measures are lifted
** .
Talking about the calculator, lead author Dr Amitava Banerjee said: "For example, we show how a 66-year-old man with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease has a 6% risk of dying over the next year and there are 25,000 'patients like me' (ie men of the same age with the same condition) in England.
"The calculator estimates 164 excess COVID-19-related deaths on top of the expected 1,639 deaths over a year in patients in a similar situation."
He added: "Our findings show the mortality risk for these vulnerable groups increases significantly and could lead to thousands of avoidable deaths."
One of the authors, Professor Harry Hemmingway, said that to keep vulnerable people safe during the pandemic, the infection rate must be kept down.
He added that doctors also "need to continue to deliver high-quality medical care to vulnerable people to prevent excess deaths in those who are not infected with coronavirus".
Officials believe the that R rate of COVID-19, the rate at which the illness is transmitted, is somewhere between 0.5 and 0.9 in the UK - meaning the spread of the disease is slowing.
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However, there is a risk that could rise now that lockdown measures have been eased in England.
Professor Hemmingway added: "Our findings emphasise the importance of delivering consistent preventive interventions to people with a wide range of diseases, who are cared for by a wide range of clinical specialities.
"This policy is only possible because we have an NHS able to use system-wide data for patient benefit."
Try the new calculator
here
.
