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By APD Commentator Shi Jiangyue
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) latest nighttime launch of what it claimed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) went beyond the expectations of many.
It might lead to the United States and South Korea speeding up a controversial deployment of a U.S. antimissile system in South Korea and compel them to prepare for the worst-case scenario of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue.
Some Western defense experts were dubious when the DPRK test-fired its first Hwasong-14 missile earlier this month, thinking what Pyongyang referred to as “intercontinental range” was merely theoretical. Quite a few of them assumed that more launches were required before the so-called ICBM gained combat capability.
Obviously, Pyongyang’s pace of ICBM development is faster than they thought.
Unexpected launch
The DPRK’s official KCNA news agency reported on July 29 that the country successfully test-fired a Hwasong-14 missile -- named after the Korean word for Mars -- at night on July 28. The launch was a shock to many as the DPRK’s previous missile launches were all conducted in the morning.
According to surveillance by the South Korean army, the DPRK fired a missile of unknown type late night on July 28 into the sea area off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.
South Korean media reported in the morning of July 29 that the DPRK fired what seemed to be a ballistic missile at 11:41 p.m. local time (1541 GMT) on July 28 from the northern Chagang province into the sea area off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.
In a statement on July 28, the U.S. Department of Defense said it believed the missile the DPRK launched was indeed an ICBM. An ICBM usually covers a minimum range of about 5,500 km and is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
“The U.S. Department of Defense detected and tracked a single North Korea missile launch today at about 10:41 a.m. (EDT),” Pentagon spokesman Jeff Davis said, using the unofficial name of the DPRK. “We assess that this missile was an intercontinental ballistic missile; this was a launch that had been expected.”
Davis said the missile traveled “about 1,000 kilometers before splashing down in the Sea of Japan,” adding that the North American Aerospace Defense Command assessed the launch and “determined it was not a threat to North America.”
Later on the same day, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a statement via the White House. Apparently representing the U.S.
government’s attitude towards the DPRK’s second missile launch this month, the statement fiercely criticized Pyongyang for conducting two ICBM tests in less than one month, saying it was “only the latest reckless and dangerous action.”
“The United States condemns this test and rejects the regime’s claim that these tests -- and these weapons -- ensure North Korea’s security. In reality, they have the opposite effect,” said the statement. Trump also reiterated his country’s commitment to taking “all necessary steps to ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in the region.”
Japan, for its part, also responded immediately after the launch, expressing its strongest condemnation and protest over the DPRK’s fresh ICBM test.
The Japanese Ministry of Defense said the missile fired by the DPRK flew for approximately 45 minutes and possibly fell into waters inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was seen entering the prime minister’s residence for an emergency meeting, which was also attended by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.
Tokyo could not afford taking the latest escalation lightly. It set up a crisis management center at the prime minister’s office to collect intelligence and formulate countermeasures.
Abe called the launch “a serious and real threat” to planes and ships, saying that it violated United Nations Security Council resolutions, and that Japan lodged its strongest condemnation and protest with the DPRK.
THAAD deployment speed up
Besides the United States and Japan, the country most agitated by the DPRK’s latest missile launch had to be South Korea, which considers Pyongyang an imminent enemy.
The launch was a particular embarrassment for South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has long been advocating for reopening the gate for inter-Korean interactions under the so-called “Sunshine Policy” towards Pyongyang, which was adopted by his predecessors between 1998 and 2008.
Moon also convened in the early morning of July 29 a swift emergency security conference, discussing measures to deal with Pyongyang’s successive missile launches and its advancement in ballistic missile capabilities.
According to South Korean media reports, during the conference, which was held at the Blue House, the president’s official residence, Moon ordered that an immediate consultation be held with the United States on strengthening their strategic deterrence vis-à-vis the DPRK, including the deployment of four additional launchers of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.
The administration of former President Park Geun-hye bought six THAAD launchers from Washington. Yet in order to avoid large-scale opposition of the South Korean public as well as bigger outrage of China and Russia, which insist that such installation will severely damage their security interests and undermine regional strategic balance, Park’s conservative government made public only the deployment of two of the launchers and had been installing the other four covertly.
After assuming office, Moon, in a bid to balance between U.S. determination about the THAAD deployment and the strong opposition of China and Russia, postponed the installment of the four launchers, citing procedural irregularities and technical problems. The DPRK’s latest missile launch, however, could provide a convincing excuse for South Korea to deploy more THAAD systems.
The ripple effect of the DPRK’s latest missile launch will further complicate the security situation and diplomacy in the East Asia region.
On the one hand, the DPRK is believed to conduct more ICBM tests with ranges surpassing the previous two.
As Pyongyang is gaining incremental progress in the miniaturization of nuclear warheads, a DPRK equipped with intercontinental strategic striking capability could well become a reality.
On the other hand, Beijing and Moscow, as parties opposing the THAAD deployment, perhaps will also have to face a situation they are not willing to be in.
Earlier this year, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the United States’ deployment of the THAAD system in South Korea would severely damage China’s security interests, disrupt regional strategic balance, do no good to peace and security of the Korean Peninsula, and go against the efforts by all parties to resolve the issue through dialogue and consultation. China firmly opposes such deployment, she added.
Facing an ever more urgent Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, all parties, including the DPRK, need to sit down and engage calmly in diplomatic consultations.
The key to resolving the issue lies in the hands of the United States, South Korea and the DPRK. If the three of them can execute the “dual suspension” proposal raised by China, in which Pyongyang halts its missile tests and Washington and Seoul stop their joint military drills, the situation on the Korean Peninsula can be expected to deescalate.
Prepare for the worst
The DPRK gaining an ICBM with a range of and above 5,000 km has always been a “red line” for the United States. Following the test in early July, U.S. experts -- even those senior officials in the intelligence community of the military -- had acknowledged that Pyongyang’s missiles could threat the U.S. homeland, but that they could only reach Alaska and Hawaii.
Yet the latest test of Hwasong-14 made U.S. experts worry that Pyongyang’s ICBM might have gained further progress. There are three main reasons.
Firstly, although the missile in the latest test flew in a high ballistic trajectory similar to that of the one in the previous test, this time it flew for 45 minutes, six minutes longer than the previous test.The six minutes should not be underestimated. Given the high speed, the additional time means much longer distance. The missile traveled some 1,000 km in the latest test, longer than the previous test.
Secondly, by conducting the test at night, Pyongyang aimed to escape U.S. satellite surveillance so as to hide its real ability in missile technology. If the range of the new Hwasong-14 has indeed surpassed that of the previous one in such a short period, it is very much likely that the missile was equipped with an additional engine, making it an enhanced version with a three-stage thruster.
Thirdly, U.S. nuclear experts warned that it appeared the missile the DPRK launched in the latest test could fly up to 10,000 km. Jeffery Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, said: “The models we’ve created based on the size of the missile and the power of the engine show that it can reach the continental U.S., probably New York and D.C.”
Although the data remains at the theoretical level, it demonstrates that U.S. mainstream experts in missile weaponry have basically agreed that the DPRK’s ICBM can reach U.S. territories farther than Alaska and Hawaii, probably Washington, D.C.
Susan Thornton, acting secretary of the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said during a congressional testimony on July 27 that the DPRK is “the most urgent and dangerous threat.”
The KCNA reported that Pyongyang’s ICBM can carry “large and heavy nuclear warhead,” and that the latest launch “was aimed to finally confirm the overall technological specifications of the weapon system of Hwasong-14.”
The DPRK’s top leader, Kim Jong Un, hailed the first Hwasong-14 test in early July as “another brilliant victory of the Korean people in their struggle against the U.S.-led imperialists.”
Kim said that with the successful launch, “the overall national power and strategic position of the DPRK have been put on a new level.” He stressed that his country “would neither put its nukes and ballistic rockets on the table of negotiations in any case nor flinch even an inch from the road of bolstering the nuclear force chosen by itself unless the U.S. hostile policy and nuclear threat to the DPRK are definitely terminated.”
Will the United States take Kim’s remarks seriously? At least Hawaii has become the first U.S. state to educate the general public to be prepared for a potential DPRK missile attack.
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency (HEMA) rolled out a preparedness plan on July 21 for the possible scenario. Lawmakers at Hawaii State Legislature had called for an upgrade of the anti-nuclear attack plans applied during the Cold War.
Starting from November, Hawaii, the only U.S. state which has been attacked by foreign troops -- the Pearl Harbor attack by Japan in 1941 -- will feature tests of a new emergency siren on the first workday of each month, Hawaii News Now reported. It will be the first time since the end of the Cold War in the 1980s that such alerts are sounded in the state.
Hawaii remains an important outpost of the U.S. military today, with Oahu Island being the seat of the U.S. Pacific Command headquarters.
The Pearl Harbor hosts dozens of Navy ships and is a key base for the U.S. Air Force, Army and Marine Corps.
Missiles fired from the DPRK can reach Hawaii within 15 or 20 minutes.
“The instructions to the public are simple: Get inside, stay inside and stay tuned,” said HEMA administrator Vern Miyagi. “You will not have time to pick up your family and go to shelter and all that kind of stuff … It has to be automatic.”
Shi Jiangyue writes extensively for media outlets on military-related topics. He has published hundreds of military- and defense-related articles on Chinese magazines and newspapers including Aerospace Knowledge, World Outlook, Modern Ships, Tank & Armored Vehicle, and Global Times.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
