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The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could inflict significant constraints on the New Zealand economy and environment, according to two expert analyses released on Friday.
The papers sponsored by the independent Law Foundation research trust are part of a series of analyses of the controversial 6,000- page pact that was agreed late last year and is set to be signed in Auckland on Feb. 4.
The paper on key economic issues examined the expected impacts of the TPP on the New Zealand economy, agricultural trade, and the potential for regulatory "chill."
"It is striking how little the TPP will deliver. Without the TPPA, our GDP will grow by 47 percent by 2030 at current growth rates. The TPP would add only 0.9 percent," co-author says Barry Coates said.
"Even that small benefit is a gross exaggeration. The modelling makes unfounded assumptions, and the real benefits will be far smaller. If the full costs were included, it is doubtful that there would be any net economic benefit to the New Zealand economy. "
The main beneficiaries of tariff reductions from TPP would be agricultural exporters, but modest tariff reductions of 1.3 percent on average by 2030 would be dwarfed by the ongoing volatility in commodity prices and exchange rates.
"There remain extensive trade barriers to New Zealand agricultural exporters into the Japanese, Canadian and U.S. food markets, and these are now locked in under the TPP," said Coates.
"The TPP has also failed to tackle agricultural subsidies that are a major trade distortion. The TPP has undermined negotiations in the World Trade Organization, the only viable forum for removing these trade distorting subsidies."
The agreement would also likely reinforce New Zealand's position as a commodity producer and hinder its progress up the value chain to greater economic prosperity, co-author Rod Oram said.
"Moreover, the TPP reads very much like a charter for incumbent businesses, with U.S. companies to the fore, that are attempting to hold back the tides of economic change the world needs."
Both the economic and environmental impact papers stressed that the investor-state dispute provisions would deter future New Zealand governments from regulatory and industrial policies that would be in the public interest, for fear of litigation by corporate interests whose profits are threatened.
Simon Terry, author of the environment paper, said foreign investors could sue the government for compensation if they believed new environmental protections would reduce their future profits, and this was a serious threat.
When challenged on the need for these investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) rules, ministers had repeatedly said that there would be no restraint on the government's ability to regulate in the public interest, but the text failed to protect the government from being sued when taking such action, Terry said.
A particular concern was the impact it could have on action to cut New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions, he said, citing a Canadian company's announcement two weeks ago that it would use similar rules to sue the U.S. government for 15 billion U.S. dollars after President Barack Obama vetoed approval for a deal between the two nations.
The New Zealand government claims the TPP would boost the New Zealand economy by at least 2.7 billion NZ dollars (1.76 billion U. S. dollars) a year by 2030. Enditem
