U.S. dominance of int'l monetary governance to recede: expert

Xinhua News Agency

text

Emerging markets will play a greater role in the international monetary governance as a parallel system outside of the established framework seeks to limit the ripple effects of the U.S. dollar.

Emerging markets are a lot more important to the global economy than the previous two decades, yet they still have little say in global financial governance that is dominated by the United States through the U.S dollar's status as reserve currency, and hence, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

However the Fed's mandate is to control domestic inflation, hence the beginning of the tightening cycle late last year, after the U.S. dollar has appreciated up to 25 percent, depending on how its measured.

"Despite what looks like an uptick in economic growth, more emerging markets enter a crisis one year after the U.S. Federal Reserve begins a new tightening cycle, quickly developing contagion fears that spread to larger economies," Commonwealth Bank of Australia director of foreign exchange strategy and international economics Joseph Capurso told Xinhua.

"You could argue Brazil and Russia are in major economic recessions at the moment, so its just following history."

"However emerging markets have little say in global financial governance despite being crucial for a recovering world economy, being net capital exporters into developed economies that have had low, or even negative interest rates, such as the EU and now Japan.

"Emerging markets are a lot more important for the world economy today then they were 20 years ago or even 10 years ago," Capurso said.

The stacking of weight against emerging markets by the U.S. and Europeans accounts for the development of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the new BRICS Development Bank and trade engagement with China in either the partner's currency or Yuan.

"China is basically building a separate system from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the G20 ... (because) it's realized that (the institutions are) too stacked against it," University of New South Wales professor of global financial governance, Ross Buckley, said, adding the mechanism for change is reliant on the United States being "generous".

Financial system changes to the governance framework established in 1944 have yet to pass the U.S. congress, however they would have had little effect as they were far too small anyway, Buckley said, hence the parallel system of governance and influence established by China.

"If we're having another Bretton Woods (Conference) moment and creating an international financial system at the moment, it would look totally and utterly different to what we've got and China would have a really big voice, India would have a decent voice, Brazil would have a decent voice," Buckley said.

"None of these countries (currently) have any effect. The U.S. has still got a veto."

Formally known as the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference, the July 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, established the regulations of the current international monetary and financial order following the conclusion of World War Two.

Buckley argues its only a matter of time before the U.S. dollar looses its status as a global reserve currency, but not before a fight with U.S. lawmakers.

"The benefits are enormous. It's worth a fortune to the United States," Buckley said.

"(U.S. lawmakers) are going to fight as long as they can, and they're going to fight for their global influence over economic matters as much as they can."