简体中文
South Korea's finance ministry on Thursday upgraded its 2013 growth outlook for the country to 2.7 percent from an earlier estimate of 2.3 percent, citing fiscal stimulus package and modest recovery of the global economy.
The Asia's fourth-largest economy was forecast to expand at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in 2013, up from 2.3 percent estimated three months before, according to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance. The growth outlook for 2014 was set at 4 percent.
The 2013 figure was higher than 2.6 percent estimated by Bank of Korea (BOK) in April and 2.6 percent expected by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in late May. The BOK planned to unveil its revised outlook next month.
In the second half of this year, the South Korean economy was expected to show a faster growth due to positive effects from the fiscal stimulus package, including supplementary budget worth 17.3 trillion won (about 15 billion U.S. dollars) and measures to boost the flagging property market.
External conditions would be enhanced down the road, helping improve exports that account for around half of the South Korean economy, the ministry said, noting that positive effects from the fiscal stimulus will contribute to the recovery of domestic demand.
The economy expanded 0.8 percent in the first quarter from three months earlier, marking the zero-percent range growth for eight straight quarters. To meet the government's efforts to stop the low-growth trend, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent last month.
BOK Governor Kim Choong-soo said earlier this month that the extra budget and policy rate cut would boost the country's growth rate by 0.2 percentage points this year, saying that the bank's 2013 growth outlook would be revised up by such margin.
The ministry picked the possibility for abrupt changes in cross- border capital flows and the unstable movement of the Japanese yen as downside risks facing the economy, but concerns over those factors were eased amid the South Korean currency's depreciation against the U.S. dollar.
The local currency fell to the dollar after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned the earlier-than-expected end of quantitative easing for the first time on May 22 through the Congressional testimony. Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed may reduce the pace of bond purchases later this year before ending it by mid- 2014.
Helped by the won's downturn, the country's export growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in May from 3.6 percent in April, offsetting negative impacts from the weak Japanese yen. The current account surplus hit a new record high of 8.64 billion dollars last month thanks to brisk exports.
Private consumption, another growth engine of the economy, was predicted to expand 2.1 percent in 2013 before jumping 3.6 percent in 2014 due to positive effects from the fiscal stimulus and improved terms of trade caused by lower global commodity prices.
Facility investment was forecast to rise 1.7 percent this year before surging 8.2 percent next year amid the modest global recovery and expectations for investment-facilitating policy under the new administration.
The 2013 outlook for employment was revised up to 300,000 job creation from an earlier forecast of 250,000 jobs. Around 480,000 jobs were expected to be created in 2014 amid the faster growth.
Consumer price inflation was forecast at 1.7 percent in 2013, downgraded from an earlier estimate of 2.3 percent. Stable prices for farm goods and crude oil along with lower demand-side inflationary pressures would lead the headline inflation to stay at a stable level, the ministry said.
