APD REVIEW: Another black swan in sight?

**By APD writer Zhang Bei

**

2016 has had enough of surprises in world politics, from the Brexit vote to US presidential election. In November, France had its first taste.

In the country’s center-right Primary, Francois Fillon, a largely unknown politician besides in his home country and the 'third man' in the contest, has won the conservative ticket in next year's presidential election by a landslide, kicking out in the first round former President Nicolas Sarkozy and in the second round seasoned politician Alain Juppé, two hopefuls before the voting.

Francois Fillon, a largely unknown politician besides in his home country and the 'third man' in the contest, has won the conservative ticket in next year's presidential election by a landslide.

It seems to be a proof that France is growing increasingly tired of conventional politicians, refusing to vote in the way that the media and polls predict.

Sarkozy could not build enough trust among the voters despite his efforts in recent years of reinventing himself and as for Juppé, the “prophet of happiness”, his message simply does not resonate.

Compared to Sarkozy and Juppé, Fillon is quite different. He cherishes his provincial and Catholic tradition and less establishment background. His message that France needs to be overhauled in a way that it hasn’t been in the last 30 years appeals to voters.

Fillon’s rise reveals a clear inclination towards the right among the Republican Party voters. He goes further than his competitor in security measures and public spending cuts.

Nicolas Sarkozy, former French president, could not build enough trust among the voters.

The proposed measures include scrapping the 35-hour working week, slashing half a million of public jobs, and raising the retirement age. He holds traditionalist views on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and favors rapprochement with Russia and talks about his willingness to negotiate with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

The elephant in the room is his chance of winning the far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Ms. Le Pen and the movement she leads has become a formidable political force that has caused considerable pressure for the governing Socialist and the center-right.

The rise of Trump in the US and the Brexit vote illustrate the same kind of voters in France might actually send Ms. Le Pen into the Elysée. These people are threatened by alien culture or so-called diversity, vulnerable to economic insecurity and loathe of the blindness and inaction of the conventional politicians. Added to the above is the national security situation in France.

Marine Le Pen, the president of the National Front (FN), a national-conservative political party in France. The rise of Trump in the US and the Brexit vote illustrate the same kind of voters in France might actually send Ms. Le Pen into the Elysée.

It is a country that repeatedly fell victim to the brutal terrorist attacks in the past few years. It may well play into the hands of Ms. Le Pen.

Since the French left is in disarray, Fillon may be the only obstacle to Ms. Le Pen sweeping into power. But his chance of winning is far from certain. Half of Le Pen’s supporters already come from the left who feel failed by the classical left. Fillon’s classical liberal economic policies such as shrinking public sector will alienate many more left-leaning voters and this could be a godsend for Ms. Le Pen.

In that case, the hope of an alliance between the center-right and left in defeating the far right, that many have predicted, will fade away. After all, the whole Western world now seems to be fertile land for black swan incidents and one in France cannot be ruled out.

Zhang Bei, Assistant Research Fellow, European Department, China Institute of International Studies