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Paper butterflies with the EU flag, American and Chinese national flags. /Getty
**Editor's note: **Amin Bagheri is a research fellow at the International Studies Association in Tehran. His primary research interest lies in international relations, transnational governance, international peace, and conflicts in the Middle East. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
The future of the international system in the short term can be considered by the relations between the United States and China.
In the new world politics of the United States, based on its capitalist style, the nature of its political system, and its strategic ambitions, it can be said that many of Europe's interests and values are ignored. Measures such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, the way the United States seeks to reform the World Trade Organization, ignoring the United Nations, an approach to its agreement, and criticism of NATO and the European Union are examples.
In the view of the members of the European Union, it is necessary to reestablish transatlantic relations. Since the 1950s, transatlantic relations have been based on a triad of shared values, a security community, and close economic ties. U.S. financial support for the so-called liberal order extended to international institutions was the most crucial aspect of achieving this convergence.
Although there has always been criticism of transatlantic ties, recent developments have cast doubt on the nature and continuity of these ties. Donald Trump was the first president who wanted to see Europe defeated. Ending U.S. multilateralism and international commitments can be considered one of Trump's most essential steps in this regard.
The United States has prepared the ground for a Cold War with China. Both Republican and Democrat parties have adopted a new policy towards China. The U.S. is not afraid of any conflict in the context of this Cold War with China, but for Europe, this conflict may impose high costs. Accordingly, Europe will have to bear these costs alone in the new circumstances.
Most European countries see China as a key partner in tackling the challenges of global governance, especially in areas such as climate change and WTO reform. However, many other European countries express the same American grievances, primarily their suspicion and distrust of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Although relations with the U.S. are more strategic and comprehensive, most EU countries view China as a business opportunity to do economic things to alleviate the financial problems. Most European countries oppose the geopolitics between the U.S. and China.
Europe sees its future position in the middle of the U.S.-China rivalry. On one side is one of the oldest strategic partners, the United States. On the other side is China, one of the largest global markets and a possible future economic superpower. U.S. unilateralism and China's growing desire to play a role in the international arena are reasons for European countries to change their approach and change Europe's strategic vision. Despite the gaps seen between EU members as well as the UK. European countries consider the United States as their most important ally and rely on it militarily, but on the other hand, they want to trade with China as much as possible. The conflict is exacerbated by the fact that Washington is seeking to increase its military presence in Hungary, Greece, and Poland.
Low angle view of European flags aligned in front of the European Parliament building against a blue sky, France, Strasbourg. /Getty
In these countries, the dynamics of economic growth appear in China's favor. Therefore, companies in these countries today are trying to maintain and even strengthen their commitments to China with caution, but they are doing so with greater awareness and consideration of new strategic dimensions and defense tools, such as the European Investment Screening Mechanism. From Europe's perspective, both China and the U.S., like two continents, have significant problems and competition.
Nevertheless, if Europe can act as a balancer, the common European goal is to avoid a bipolar system in which the EU is forced to choose between one side and accept its good and evil.
Some countries, such as Italy, Portugal, and Greece, are likely to present themselves as a bridge between the U.S. and China due to their history and geographical location. Some countries, such as Hungary, are trying to pit the two powers against each other to take advantage of possible advantages.
Besides, Hungary is playing with both forces to counter French and German domination and leadership in Brussels. However, European strategic independence or strategic autonomy has not yet been adequately defined. Even if the degree of motivation and ambition on this issue varies across the EU, this concept has been very appealing to members because they want to lead the international order. Accordingly, the only thing that will help Europe is to maintain European strategic independence or autonomy in the future of international order.
From the European Union's point of view, the future world order is a bipolar one, and it will be a Cold War between the U.S. and China. However, it is unclear what the future will hold and whether one of the two will succeed in becoming the undisputed superpower. Because it still takes a long time for the two sides to argue against each other. The position of the United States and China in the future order will not change much with the current situation.
In many cases, both the U.S. and China have relative dominance over the other, which will not be balanced. Achieving balance for this state will take a long time. Therefore, it is not yet possible to say whether U.S. power will be superior to China or not. Europe is also trying to stay in the middle, as it favors some of the characteristics of the United States and some of the elements of China.
In other words, Europe is doing its best so that the rules of this new bipolar order are not to the detriment of the countries of the continent and, in the first instance, do not fall between the two powers.
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