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The 2020 census, a once-a-decade survey whose results were released on May 11, shows that an aging population will be what China faces for a long time. China's elderly people are living longer and healthier lives. This is good news all around, but brings with it demographic challenges that will need to be countered by policymakers.
China's successful drive for high-quality, sustainable growth has led to new opportunities and challenges. With an increase in prosperity, education levels and life expectancy, the country is facing an aging population and a lower fertility rate, a byproduct of economic and social development that many developed countries are facing.
China must change the way it values the elderly and supports parents.
This raises policy challenges, but not any difficulties unique to China or that cannot be overcome. Take the economy, for example. China's workforce is declining slightly, but still huge. The biggest problem facing the country, similar to many other nations, is not a lack of workers, but a skills deficit – even as education levels continue to rise.
As China continues down the path of quality growth, there will be ever increasing demand for workers that can adapt to the new economy focused on high tech, services, and innovation. China's position as a global manufacturing center is no longer based on cheap labor, but on expertise derived from experience and technological advancement.
There is an urgent need to raise the skills, not the size, of the labor force.
One solution lies in the older generation. Today, those Chinese who are between the age of 60 and 70 are more educated than in the past, in better health, with a longer life expectancy. This means they have more wisdom to pass on, and skills that are highly in demand by society.
People walk through a park in Beijing, China, April 21, 2021. /Getty
Similar to the West, the current retirement age was set in an era when the life expectancy of people was much lower. In developed countries, people are typically working well past the traditional retirement ages and, in many cases, launching new businesses and starting new careers. We can expect this trend in China as well, and have started to see policy changes in this direction.
In addition, these days elderly people can help drive the economy with spending. As anybody who passes a public park knows, seniors are active and healthier than ever. Chinese are also world-class savers. Elderly people represent a significant market that can help drive consumption.
Another issue flagged by the latest census is a drop in fertility rates. Lower fertility rates a common challenge facing many countries, particularly the wealthy ones. This is also a challenge for China. The main cause of the drop in fertility in China is the drop in women of child-bearing age. That can't be quickly changed, but recent policies changes have improved the situation, including loosening the one-child policy in 2016.
A crucial reason for the drop in fertility is the high cost of raising a child. This comes as average Chinese couples are under more financial pressure as the cost-of-living rises. The government has already made reducing the cost of raising a child a primary policy goal of its most recent Five-Year Plan. Easing the burden of having children will be a priority for policymakers going forward. They will be examining further improvements to family planning policy as well.
The ability to make and execute detailed long-term plans is one of the strengths of the Chinese system. The government has been tweaking policy to adapt to demographic changes for years. Problems like rising living costs are not clear-cut issues that could be easily addressed and solved in the short-term. Abruptly changing course could hinder the country's overall economic development. A large swath of European countries, plus Japan and South Korea are facing similar issues – some have been facing them for a long time.
As society progresses, demography changes. Success brings new problems, but there's no obstacle that cannot be overcome. The government has to take care of the present needs while keeping an eye out for long-term effects. There's no golden solution. No single country has answers to all problems. It is a trial-and-error process.
Despite the problems, for Chinese people, family is the most important thing. And seeing one's parents grow healthy and happy can be counted as a great blessing.
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