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Falling commodity prices are slowing New Zealand's economic growth, although the economy is still expanding "at a robust pace," the Treasury said in its Pre- election Economic and Fiscal Update on Tuesday.
Dairy and forestry prices had fallen sooner than forecast, exposing "an area of downside risk for the forecasts," said the document issued in advance of the general election set for Sept. 20.
"As a result, the forecast decline in the goods terms of trade is occurring sooner than previously expected and consequently will provide less support to growth," it said.
However, the government was still on track for an operating surplus this fiscal year, Finance Minister Bill English said in a statement.
"The forecast Budget surplus for this year is still modest at 297 million NZ dollars (250.53 million U.S. dollars) and the forecast surpluses in subsequent years are not," said English.
"Some of the drivers of growth are expected to be a little stronger than forecast in the Budget, while others have weakened a little."
The Treasury forecasts also showed core government expenses forecast to fall to 30.3 percent of GDP by 2015, down from 35 percent of GDP in 2011.
Annual average GDP growth for the year to March was 3.3 percent and growth for the year to March 2015 was forecast to be 3.8 percent.
However, critics said the Treasury figures showed declining GDP growth up to 2018, indicating an over-reliance on raw commodities such as milk and logs.
"We are seeing forecast economic growth rates that peak in March next year and rapidly decline to the mediocre around 2.1 percent and well below growth rates in the 2000s before the crisis. The current account deficit blows back out to over 6 percent of GDP within two years. Productivity growth is forecast to be mediocre and falling," Council of Trade Unions economist Bill Rosenberg said in a statement.
"The forecasts show real wages falling behind productivity growth over the next four years, meaning wage and salary earners will not be getting their share of what the economy can afford. Unemployment is forecast to still be above 5 percent in 2016, with 132,000 unemployed. The best it gets is 4.5 percent (117,000 people), despite New Zealand doing much better during the 2000s."
