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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forthcoming visit to Iran, just days after the Saudi King’s historic trip to Moscow earlier this month, is viewed as critical in the changing power dynamics in the Middle East.
With the perceptibly declining influence of the United States in the energy-rich geo-strategically important region, other powers – particularly Russia and China and to an extent India – are increasingly making significant inroads giving a multi-polar character to regional politics and economic affairs.
Former US President Barack Obama had notably moved the US focus away from the Middle East and “pivoted to Asia” to beef up American presence in the Pacific in a bid to contain an ever-rising China.
And with Obama’s successor Donald Trump’s about face on Syria, the credibility of the US as a reliable partner has been severely eroded among its allies in the Middle East.
On the other hand, non-Western powers are intensifying their geopolitical presence in the region. Russia is using its role in Syria as leverage in relations with Western allies such as the Gulf states while China is translating its massive economic relationship into strategic ties driven by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
India too is increasing its strategic stakes in a region that is vital to its energy and economic security.
Moscow's outreach to regional powers
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei receives a gift from Russia's President Vladimir Putin (left) in Tehran, on November 23, 2015.
While Russia and Iran are witnessing a new phase of strategic ties with increased collaboration in the areas of economy, politics and defense driven by their mutual distrust of the West, what is more remarkable is Moscow’s outreach to other regional powers considered long to be strong US and Western allies, particularly Tehran’s arch-foe Saudi Arabia and NATO member Turkey.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations appear to have realized that they needed to reduce their dependence on the US and diversify their global alliances. Russia has emerged as one of the most prominent powers they have turned to.
"They're hedging their bets with Moscow," Mohamad Bazzi, associate professor of journalism at New York University and former adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, was quoted as saying in a CNN report.
This was exemplified by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s Moscow visit earlier this month, where he signed preliminary agreements to buy Russia's S-400 air defense systems and anti-tank guided missile systems and receive "cutting edge technologies," as well as draw up investment and energy deals, according to the kingdom’s military firm, Saudi Arabian Military Industries.
"This is the first sitting Saudi monarch to visit Moscow, and it wasn't that long ago, two decades ago when Saudis were pumping money into Afghanistan to fight the Soviet Union," Bazzi said.
Russia has already sold Iran the advanced S-300 air defense system after international sanctions against Tehran were lifted following the landmark 2015 nuclear deal. Moscow has also helped in building nuclear reactors in Iran.
While Moscow and Riyadh back opposing sides in the Syrian civil war – where Russia has teamed up with Iran in defending President Bashar Assad, whom Saudi Arabia and other US allies in the region including Turkey want to overthrow – observers see the Saudi King’s Russia visit as an attempt to sway Putin to use his position in containing Iranian influence in the Middle East.
As the Kremlin works for a political settlement in Syria that guarantees Assad's role, “Moscow wants the Saudis to help fund reconstruction projects in the war-torn country, giving Russian companies beneficial deals,” AFP quoted Vladimir Frolov, a Moscow-based independent foreign policy analyst, as saying.
Last week another Gulf state, Qatar, signed a defense pact with Russia amid an ongoing diplomatic crisis that has seen Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt boycott Doha over its fostering ties with Iran.
Another US ally and NATO member Turkey has also signed a deal reportedly worth 2 billion US dollars to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia, a move that has shocked its allies in the alliance.
Last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan unnerved the West after he chose Russia for his first trip abroad after the July 17 failed coup attempt.
Erdogan has repeatedly blamed the US for harboring exiled Islamic leader Fethullah Gulen, whom Turkey blames for the coup.
US inaction on Ankara’s demands for Gulen’s extradition has had a massive impact on bilateral ties, pushing Turkey towards an alliance with Russia.
Moscow and Ankara are also collaborating in bringing peace in Syria after having backed opposing sides.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar will keenly watch the Russian President’s Iran visit to gauge what it means for regional security.
Breathing new life in China's ties
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) holds a welcome ceremony for Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before their talks in Beijing, China, on March 16, 2017.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Iran and Egypt in January last year breathed new life into Beijing’s relations with these countries with far-reaching implications in the Middle East and beyond.
China has traditionally been among Iran’s closest allies and largest trading partners. In a symbolic gesture following Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, Beijing in February 2016 sent the first direct cargo train to Iran which covered a 10,400-kilometer journey from Zhejiang Province on China’s eastern coast to Tehran in 14 days.
The event was hailed as a revival of the Silk Road, with great potential for both China and Iran to further increase mutual trade.
Lately, China has diversified its relations with other countries in the Middle East.
In January 2016, Xi’s address to the Arab League at its Cairo headquarters had a clear message that outlined the Chinese vision for the turbulent region focusing on peace, development and stability.
China is neither looking for proxies nor trying to fill any power vacuum. China seeks hegemony over no one. The influence China seeks is that of dialogue partner. Tough problems obstruct development in the region, Xinhua quoted Xi as telling the league members. Only through dialogue and development can differences be properly addressed and problems solved, it added.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the Saadabad Palace in Tehran, Iran, on January 23, 2016.
With the rise of China's international status, Middle Eastern countries look forward to China's playing a more prominent role in the affairs of the region, An Huihou, former Chinese ambassador to Egypt and Lebanon, told Xinhua.
China also looks at the strategically located countries with huge energy reserves as key to its Belt and Road Initiative.
China's invitation for Arab nations to take part in the Belt and Road Initiative will help with economic development, infrastructure modernization and industrialization, Xue Qingguo, a councilor at the Center for China-Arab Cooperation Forum Studies, told Xinhua after Xi’s tour of the region.
“Beijing sees the Middle East as part of the trade routes it seeks to secure from East Asia, through to Africa and Europe. China is positioning itself as a less judgmental alternative to America. It has signed security agreements with friends of America such as Saudi Arabia, in addition to providing diplomatic protection to rivals such as Iran,” a report by Washington-based think-tank Brookings Institution said.
During the Saudi King’s reciprocal visit to Beijing this March, Riyadh signed deals worth over 65 billion US dollars. President Xi, at a meeting with King Salman, said, "For a long time, China and Islamic countries have respected each other and had win-win cooperation, and have created a model of the peaceful coexistence of different cultures.”
And, Salman told Xi he hoped China could play an even greater role in Middle East affairs.
“Saudi Arabia is willing to work hard with China to promote global and regional peace, security and prosperity,” he said.
India's growing security aspirations
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Shaikh Mohammed bin Zayed welcomes Narendra Modi (left) in Abu Dhabi on August 17, 2015.
India, like China, is among the few countries that have good relations with most nations in the Middle East, including traditional arch-foes Iran and Saudi Arabia.
India has largely been seen in the region as a benign power that steers clear of regional politics and focuses on exporting labor and importing oil.
India’s Middle East policy has indeed revolved around economic ties, with little focus on political ties. In recent years, however, New Delhi’s approach has changed as it begins to think and act more strategically.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Iran and Saudi Arabia last year to take its relations forward with both the nations.
“In the last decade or so, several factors have raised the strategic stakes for India. Firstly, existing pillars of the relationship (such as energy trade) have taken on greater strategic significance. There is growing expectation among policymakers that India will eventually become a global strategic power. With oil being particularly important for military power projection, India’s already growing dependence on Middle Eastern energy assumes a more strategic dimension,” a report by Washington-based think-tank Brookings Institution said.
India’s security aspirations are growing in what it sees as its extended neighborhood including the Indian Ocean. Indian policymakers are concerned about increasing instability and the weakening of states in the Middle East which threatens New Delhi’s energy imports and millions of its diaspora. India has the largest community of expatriates in the Gulf countries and the extended Middle East.
India’s growing international trade further increases the importance of protecting sea lanes from the Middle East. Since 2000, New Delhi has stated the Middle East is strategically interrelated to South Asia. India’s maritime doctrine of 2009 states that the Gulf and Arabian Sea are vital to India’s interests. In recent years, New Delhi has signed security and defense agreements with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar.
New Delhi has traditionally maintained good relations with Tehran and shipped its first consignment of wheat to Afghanistan by sea on Monday through the strategic Chahbahar Port it has developed on Iran’s sea coast, launching the new strategic trade route, which will be a vital link to the North South Transport Corridor that will connect India, Iran and other Persian Gulf countries to Russia via the Caspian Sea and on towards northern and western Europe.
(CGTN)
