简体中文
By APD commentator Ji Xiaojing
(Translated by Shi Xiaomeng)
In the wind and rain, the election for Japan’s House of Representatives concluded on Oct. 22. In the election, 1180 candidates had competed for 465 seats. The results for four seats in Japan’s Kyushu area were delayed by typhoon, but did not affect the overall election.
The final results show that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has gained 283 seats, winning a one-half of majority. Meanwhile, the LDP and Komeito together have garnered 312 seats, accounting for a two-thirds of majority.
This means that Shinzo Abe will stay on the position of Japanese prime minister till 2021. Abe continues to be the biggest stakeholder in the Japanese politics. He will also become the longest ruling leader in Japan’s history.
How did Abe win?
Abe’s victory can be attributed to the right timing at which he dissolved the parliament and his accuracy in collecting seats. In the election, the LDP alone has gained 283 seats, accounting for 61.39 percent of the total number.
This demonstrates that Abe has achieved his strategic purpose by holding the election ahead of schedule. He has taken the advantage of his support rate which has turned stable to consolidate his ruling position when other parties are not ready, and enhance his influence within the LDP.
Another main reason for Abe’s victory is the lack of competitors. Candidates from eight parties participated in the election. The veteran Democratic Party is divided into three, which greatly reduced its strength.
The Party of Hope was created less than two months; qualifications are insufficient. Disunity has led to fighting among the opposition parties over votes in small electoral precincts.
In this election, the unfavored Constitutional Democratic Party turned out to be a dark horse, garnering 54 seats, and has become the biggest opposition party.
The Party of Hope,
which lost its stamina, failed to maintain its previous control of 57 seats and only gained 49 seats in the end. At first, a number of voters had a good impression of Yuriko Koike, who led the Hope of Party.
However, Koike’s political stance wavered in the election. In contrast, Head of Constitutional Democratic Party Yukio Edano ’s unwavering stance has helped his party win more votes.
It can be seen that in the rapidly changing political game,
holding a positive and stable political posture which is close to the public opinion seems to be more important than ever.
Also, thanks to the prudence and conservativeness of the Japanese public, Abe has won the game. By playing “a card of national crisis,” he has won a large amount of support. However, winning the election does not mean winning people’s hearts.
According to statistics of the Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan’s major newspapers, the election’s turnout stands at only 53.6 percent, the second lowest after the World War II, only higher than the 52.66 percent in 2014. Therefore, instead of considering the LDP represents the public opinion, it is better to say that the Japanese people have no choice.
How far is Abe from constitutional amendment?
Abe’s reappointment is actually acceptable for the Japanese people. Japan will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy. And Abe plans to raise the consumption tax from the current 8 percent to 10 percent in a bid to get rid of deflation.
A large part of the tax income will be used to repay the public debt; the rest will be invested in free pre-school education as mentioned in his election campaign. However, the road for Abe’s future governance is not flat.
A series of urgent problems in improving people’s well-being and safeguarding national security need to be resolved. If the support rate for the Cabinet falls again, there will be variables in the governing of LDP.
The ultimate goal of Abe is undoubtedly constitutional amendment. He has taken a big step towards that goal after garnering 312 seats in the House of Representatives together with Komeito.
The number has reached the threshold of the Congress to start the process of constitutional amendment. Asahi Shimbun has reported that the LDP has considered to submit its draft of constitutional amendment to Congress after the election.
Though Komeito is cautious about the amendment, it can hardly check and balance Abe’s trial as it is in the same ruling coalition with the LDP. In addition, the Party of Hope holds a similar position with Abe regarding the historical issues.
The party is very likely to become a helping hand of Abe in revising the pacifist constitution. Abe’s ambition to revise the constitution is within his reach in the new term.
Looking back, Abe’s cabinet has been acting as a “spoiler” in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. If Abe sticks to this diplomatic style, it will bring endless troubles to Japan’s neighboring countries, and it does no good for Japan itself.
On China’s policy, it is estimated that Abe will continue his hard-line stance. The Sino-Japanese relations would hardly see obvious improvements in the short term. If Abe does not seek any change in this regard, continues to consider China as an imaginary enemy, and blindly contains China’s development, it will be a huge loss for both China and Japan.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
