Over 100 Russian diplomats expelled, what’s next may be less dramatic

APD NEWS

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By APD Writer Xiao Ma

In a concerted effort, the United States, 14 European Union members, Ukraine and Canada on Monday ordered the expulsion of more than 100 Russian diplomats, marking their first retaliation against an alleged assassination attempt on an ex-Russian spy in London.

Expelled Russian diplomats leave London embassy

The United States led the charge by ordering home 60 Russian diplomats, 12 of which work at the United Nations in New York, and the rest in Russia’s consulate in Seattle which has also been ordered to shut.

Ukraine, Canada and 14 European Union members later made similar moves, in what British Prime Minister hailed as the “largest collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history.”

White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders

According the White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, Russia’s Seattle consulate was targeted because of “its proximity to one of our submarine bases and Boeing”, and all those expelled were Russian intelligence officers.

“The United States takes this action in conjunction with our NATO allies and partners around the world in response to Russia’s use of a military-grade chemical weapon on the soil of the United Kingdom, the latest in its ongoing pattern of destabilizing activities around the world,” Sanders said in a statement.

While the tough rhetoric may suggest a more confrontational U.S.-Russia relationship is looming, experts say that multiple factors contributed to Washington’s show of force, and that there are hints that the United States may not be looking to escalate things with its longtime rival.

The U.S. moves “are far more than symbolic as they are an attempt to hinder Russian intelligence gathering in these countries,” Dan Mahaffee, a foreign policy expert at the Center for the Study of Congress and the Presidency, said.

Former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were hospitalized in critical condition after being poisoned in the city of Salisbury in the UK

It is true that Washington has been eyeing Russia with ever more suspicion, but pressure from European allies, particularly the United Kingdom, and the need to build a strong image before midterm elections, may have also played a part in Trump’s decision.

In fact, in announcing the expulsion, U.S. officials made it plenty clear that Washington did not want to put U.S.-Russia ties in the freezer, and expressed hope that the two sides would still cooperate on other pressing issues.

“The United States stands ready to cooperate to build a better relationship with Russia,” Sanders said at the end of her statement, and was later echoed by her deputy Raj Shah at a White House press briefing, who said: “we want to have a cooperative relationship. The president still remains open to working with the Russians on areas of mutual concern: counterterrorism, for example, and others.”

After years of pitting against each other in conflicts in the Middle East, Washington and Moscow have found a rare yet fragile alliance in rooting out extremism in the region, which has yielded tangible result, as exemplified by the downfall of the Islamic State.

Moving forward, despite Moscow’s promise to retaliate, experts say escalation is unlikely but the two countries may continue to engage in a tit-for-tat exchange.

“It wishes to raise the cost to Russia of persistent misbehavior,” he said. “Channels for Western dialogue with Russia may exist, but are of little value unless progress can be made on key issues … What will influence them is whether Russia takes actions to address Western concerns,” former U.S. diplomat in Moscow William Courtney said.


Xiao Ma, a Washington-based reporter focusing on U.S. domestic politics

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)