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The migration crisis seems still out of control three weeks after the European Union (EU) signalled its open borders Schengen might be suspended for two years unless the flow of refugees slows down soon.
Time is running out, warned experts in The Hague and in Brussels, fearing that mounting efforts throughout Europe to avoid the collapse of the decade-long passport free travel regime might fail to deliver.
Fences erected across Europe
Among members of the free travel zone (22 EU members and four non-EU countries), Germany, Sweden, Austria, France, Denmark and non-EU member Norway have reintroduced temporary border checks. Many other countries have implemented stricter border checks without officially calling the measures "reintroduction of border controls".
Several countries which were the first to erect the fences last November have asked the European Commission to "prepare the legal and practical basis" for the extension of temporary border controls.
Under Articles 23-25 of the Schengen Borders Code, an EU member state may implement temporary border controls, but not for more than a total period of six months. A prolongation is possible under Article 26 of the Code.
If such an action of "last resort" is taken, it means that EU leaders recognize that "persistent serious deficiencies" in controls at Schengen's external borders put the very existence of Schengen in jeopardy. In other words, it mean the "legal death" of Schengen.
Urgent actions needed
" If controls remain for more than short periods, they risk reversing decades of European integration. It is extremely difficult to have border controls lifted once they are installed for a longer period," said Adriaan Schout, senior research fellow and coordinator Europe at Clingendael, the influential Dutch institute for international relations.
"The Dutch presidency's effort is a race against time," added the political scientist. A solution to curb the influx of refugees is of absolute necessity to avoid the extension of temporary border controls and therefore save Schengen.
But the influx shows little sign of letting up as more than 35, 000 refugees made the short and hazardous crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands in January alone. In total the number of arrivals by sea topped 76,000 in the first six weeks of 2016, 10 times as many as in the same period last year, when more than a million people reached Europe.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a further 1. 3 million people are expected to arrive on the continent this year. A surge of new arrivals is expected with warmer spring weather unless a viable solution is in place.
"Europe needs a European solution to the refugee crisis," argued Guntram Wolff, director of the Brussels based Bruegel think tank.
Without a European solution, which includes effective registration of refugees at the external borders and sharing of refugees across the EU as well as a common asylum policy, "political pressure will rise and Schengen will be in danger", he stressed.
Crycial deadlines
"All parties concerned and especially the Netherlands realize that Schengen is of outmost importance. The Dutch government takes action at top political level to keep the open borders zone floating," said Schout. The Netherlands holds the rotating EU presidency from January to June.
"It is not just the May deadline that European governments and the Dutch presidency are trying to reach," Schout added, referring to the May deadline, when short-term dispensations for border controls end.
"The German regional elections in March are also crucial. The migration crisis has brought about deep divisions across Germany and Merkel is under fire on her open borders immigration policy," said Schout.
If Europe's leading economy tightens further its border control the decision would have a knock-on effect across Europe.
"This would result in one country after another between Germany and Greece successively closing its borders," the Dutch expert said.
Such a development will be a serious blow to the EU's economy.
"Not only would the EU's 1.7 million daily commuters find it more difficult to get to work, but production processes that rely on long value chains and intermediate products coming from all over Europe would be seriously disrupted," noted Wolff.
The costs in freight are also of big concern. Millions of lorries and trucks are in circulation in Europe. More than 18 million trucks enter Germany every year via toll roads, estimated Bruegel researchers. The introduction of controls on the German border would have significant consequences for cross border trade and production processes.
Cases of Greece,Turkey
Greece, at the forefront of Europe's external border, has been under threat of being suspended from the passport free area following criticises of its poor response to the migration crisis. Progress reports released by the Commission on Wednesday showed there was still a lot to be done for Greece to fix, what Brussels had described as "border neglect".
"As Greece shares no land borders with Schengen members, the country's suspension might not really have an impact on migrant flows," argued Schout. "What is crucial is the control of the Greek-Turkish borders.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reaffirmed Wednesday that Turkey will continue to provide refuge to Syrians who fled the conflicts. In return, the EU has pledged 3 billion euros (about 3.3 billion U.S. dollars) to help to improve the condition of refugees, and to grant political concessions to Turkey, including an easing of visa restrictions and the fast-tracking of its EU membership process.
At the end of November last year, Turkey and the EU agreed on a Joint Action Plan aimed at stepping up cooperation for the support of Syrian refugees under temporary protection and to strengthen cooperation to prevent irregular migration flows to the EU.
According to a progress report released Wednesday by the Commission, Turkey still needs, among other measures, to step up land based operations in order to prevent irregular departures of migrants and refugees from its territory to the EU. The number of people arriving irregularly in the EU from Turkey has decreased steadily since October, but the total number of arrivals remains high for winter.
The average daily arrivals from Turkey to Greece stood at 2,186 in January, compared to 6,929 for October and 3,575 in December.
Turkey should also improve the implementation of its bilateral readmission agreement with Greece, and should be ready to implement the EU-Turkey readmission agreement for third country nationals from June 1, 2016.
The report acknowledged several concrete measures that Turkey has already taken on the implementation of the action plan, such as the introduction in January of visa obligations for arrivals of Syrians to Turkey from third countries, a measure that "has sharply reduced arrivals of Syrians from Lebanon and Jordan into Turkey".
The measures giving work permits to Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey are another important step forward. Enditem
