APD Review | Will the resurgence of Islamic State occur in Syria?

APD NEWS

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By APD writer Hu Xiaodao

Translated by Ma Qian

The Syrian government and the opposition have recently announced that although already ousted from its strongholds, the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group has been trying to rally its forces again in the war-torn country. Some militias of the opposition said the IS has been striving to connect its supply chains with the group’s branches scattered around Syria.

Syria declares victory over Islamic State

“They’re not trying to control towns,” a tribal sheikh from the east of the country said. “What they’re doing is opening up routes. They need to connect their remaining pockets and sleeper cells scattered across Syria – from the southern border, all the way to Abu Kamal [in the east].”

In 2014, the IS managed to sweep across nearly half of Syria and a third of Iraq, declaring that a “caliphate” was established. But over the recent years, the IS has been losing ground in Iraq and Syria as international alliances led by the United States and Russia fought to defeat it. By December 21, 2017, only around 1,000 to 3,000 IS fighters controlled about 1,900 square miles (5,000 square kilometers) of lands in Syria and Iraq.

Yet, considering historical experience and the IS’ recent moves, it is still likely that the terrorist group will resurge.

Looking back at history, it is not hard to find that IS has had some “foundation” among ordinary people in the Middle East. Since the U.S. force invaded Iraq in 2003, some Iraqi soldiers and troops chose to joined al-Qaeda in Iraq (predecessor of the IS) under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. They not only enlarged its armed forces, but also provided him with accommodation, intelligence, cash and weapons.

Besides, Abu al-Ghadiya, a Syrian dentist that took part in jihad with Zarqawi and can speak four languages, has constantly offered him various supplies, smuggling weapons, money and fighters across the Syria-Iraq border.

Most importantly, with the furtive support of Sunni tribes in Anbar Province, Iraq, Zarqawi has successfully launched a number of terrorist attacks in the Middle East that held much sway.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, current head of the IS, excels his predecessor Zarqawi. He took advantage of the civil war in Syria to call on Muslims around the world to participate in jihad, and finally captured large swaths of land of the country including Raqqa.

In Iraq, Baghdadi summoned plenty of Sunni supporters, which laid a solid foundation for counterattacking Iraq and conquering Mosul. Under the rule of either Zarqawi or Baghdadi, IS and its predecessor both have used Sharia and public opinion to recruit a large quantity of supporters, making IS the most destructive terrorist group in the world.

Judging from the status quo, although IS’ force in Syria has been widely crippled, the group’s resurgence is not impossible.

First of all, there are exploitable opportunities for IS due to power wrestling of major countries such as the U.S. and Russia. Since 2017, with the defeat of IS in Syria, big powers like the U.S. and Russia have accelerated their power struggle in the country. Raqqa, the de-facto capital of the IS, fell into the hand of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is dominated by Kurdish and supported by the U.S.. While the Syrian government forces, backed by Russia, has conquered cities including Deir ez-Zor, Mayadin and Abu Kamal. Recently, Russia and the U.S. have accused each other’s Syrian partners of allowing the IS to regroup in the country’s eastern region.

**Secondly, the Syrian government is too fragile to take the helm. **So far, the Syrian government forces that take control of more than half of the country’s sovereign are too scattered to contain the IS, especially when the government forces battle rebels. It’s reported that the IS can even transfer its troops on the land controlled by the government forces. While Iraq has been facing multiple heavy tasks of reconstructing its country, it remains a long, arduous task of preventing the IS and Sunni forces from re-alliance. Under such a circumstance, the IS fighters have begun to sneak into the loosely regulated borders between Iraq and Syria in the desert.

**What’s more, the confluence of terrorist groups might pose a grave threat. **It’s known that Levant Liberation Committee, an extremist group closely connected with al Qaeda, has been recruiting fugitive IS militants in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib, in a bid to gather more forces to fight against the Syrian government forces and foil attacks launched by part of the opposition, which is supported by the U.S.. Though changing its name for several times, Levant Liberation Committee has been seen as a loyal force of al Qaeda.

Brett McGurk, Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS, has said Idlib is the largest al Qaeda haven since bin Laden's days in Afghanistan. While opposition activists in Idlib said that long-established Isis sleeper cells might be activated, as the rebels have been weakened. “There are villages here sympathetic to Isis that are just waiting for it to come liberate them,” said one activist.

It still remains a long and hard road to combat the IS. If relevant parties cannot collaborate as collective forces, it will probably lead to the resurgence of the terrorist group in Syria. Then, all the anti-terrorism accomplishment made previously will be wasted.


Hu Xiaodao, researcher of APD Institute, has published hundreds of military papers and translations in military publications. He is mainly focused on the research of military dynamic and anti-terrorism.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)