Saudi Prince warns of a nuclear arms race with Iran

The Saudi Crown Prince’s remarks to an American television channel on Thursday, asserting that his kingdom will develop nuclear weapons if regional foe Iran does so, have significantly raised the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

“Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible,” Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told CBS during an interview for the channel’s “60 Minutes” program, which will be aired in full on Sunday.

Mohammed’s remarks have set the alarm bells ringing in the international community that is already grappling with US President Donald Trump’s threat of a unilateral withdrawal from the landmark global nuclear deal with Iran, which saw a partial lifting of economic sanctions against Tehran in return for the country curbing its nuclear program.

Trump has given a May 12 deadline to the EU to come up with revisions to the deal, or see him pull out and re-impose economic sanctions that are bound to provoke a full-blown crisis with Iran.

Global leaders, including America’s European allies, have unanimously urged Trump to retain the 2015 deal that was agreed upon by Iran and six international powers (jointly known as P5+1) - the US, the UK, China, Russia, France and Germany.

Iran has limited its nuclear program under the 2015 deal but has said it will be under no obligations to step back from its nuclear and missile programs if the US jeopardizes the multilateral deal.

Iran was also quick to hit back at the Saudi Crown Prince’s comments. "These words are worthless ... because they come from a simple mind full of illusions who speaks only bitterness and lies,” said Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi.

Saudi eyes civil nuclear pact with the US

Saudi Arabia, like Trump, has ferociously opposed the nuclear deal. The Crown Prince is expected to discuss the issue with Trump during his four-day visit to the US that begins on Monday.

US President Donald Trump (rights) meets with Mohammed bin Salman, the then-Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in the Oval Office at the White House, in Washington, DC, on March 14, 2017.

Earlier this week, the Saudi Cabinet approved a national policy for atomic energy program during a session chaired by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, according to a press statement from the kingdom’s information ministry.

According to the new policy announced on Wednesday, “all nuclear activities will be restricted to peaceful purposes, within the framework defined by international legislations, treaties and conventions”.

Mohammed is expected to push for a civil nuclear deal with the US as he meets with Trump next week. A civil nuclear pact, often called the "123 agreement" after the section of the US Atomic Energy Act, would enable US companies to participate in Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to construct a number of nuclear power reactors as the kingdom weans itself off oil.

Saudi Arabia plans to build two nuclear stations as part of its medium-term program and aims to increase the number to 16 reactors over the next 20-25 years with a target to generate 16 gigawatts of power.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al Falih has earlier said he expected to sign contracts for the two reactors by the end of 2018 and hoped that American companies will compete for the projects. Westinghouse and other US-based companies are reportedly discussing the formation of a consortium to bid on the project.

US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, who sees American participation in the potentially lucrative Saudi nuclear energy market as a way to help revitalize the moribund US nuclear industry, visited Riyadh in December and indicated that he expected US-Saudi negotiations on a 123 agreement to get underway shortly, according to a report by Robert Einhorn, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

To overcome the impasse that has stalled completion of the 123 agreement in the last few years, the two sides will have to find common ground on how to deal with uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, two dual-use "fuel cycle" technologies that can be used to produce fuel for nuclear reactors but can also be used to produce the highly enriched uranium or separated plutonium needed for nuclear weapons, Einhorn said.

In Washington, Mohammed will try to convince Trump to give Saudi Arabia the reserved right to enrich uranium in return for Riyadh choosing American nuclear technology.

“The national policy recognizes the importance of optimal utilization of natural resources found in nuclear materials, applying best practices for radioactive-waste management and achieving sustainability by developing local expertise in the atomic energy sector,” a statement from the Saudi Cabinet said.

US administration officials have already met Mohammed in London to discuss the terms of a deal.

Does Riyadh already have 'the bomb'?

While Saudi Arabia has officially declared its intention of peaceful use of nuclear technology, the Crown Prince’s latest remarks have offered a glimpse into Riyadh’s strategic thinking which is essentially guided by Iran, according to analysts.

“The focus of Saudi nuclear intentions is Iran. It is not just a threat to the Saudis, but also an insult to the kingdom locally, that Iran may get nuclear power, while Saudi Arabia does not,” Washington-based Saudi columnist and author Jamal Khashoggi said.

Khashoggi believed that Saudi Arabia initially welcomed the nuclear deal with Iran but then revised its position after the realization that the pact “ignored Iran’s expansion throughout the Middle East, which Trump has promised to address.”

“The Saudis also know the agreement has a limited timeframe, after which Tehran can resume building a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, Iran is still ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of nuclear facilities and research. Despite the agreement, Tehran pursues nuclear research and trains experts,” he said.

The kingdom has begun to respond to this. There is a race to build nuclear reactors in the region, which includes the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, even if they don’t have nuclear weapons. It is not clear whether there is cooperation between them similar to the alleged cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Khashoggi wondered.

Other observers also alluded to the Saudi-Pakistani collaboration suggesting that Riyadh might already have “the bomb”.

“Saudi Arabia probably already has a nuclear weapons capability, courtesy of Pakistan,” asserted Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute.

“The assumption is that Pakistan’s nuclear-tipped missiles could be sent to the kingdom, either to boost Saudi deterrence against Iran or to safeguard part of Pakistan’s strategic force in time of crisis with India, complicating New Delhi’s options,” he elucidated.

The details of such a Saudi-Pakistani understanding, said Henderson, may not be in a written agreement, but are reconfirmed every time there is a change of government in Pakistan, or a change on the Saudi throne. He cited Mohammed’s two visits to Islamabad since his father King Salman took over the throne in 2015 and the regular visits by Pakistan’s military leadership to the kingdom as signs of the deep nuclear and defense ties between the two nations.

Is Saudi nuclear drive linked to Iran deal?

Khashoggi stressed that most of the Saudi and Iranian nuclear efforts will go toward generating electricity as long as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is in place. “This is the right way so that Saudi Arabia does not continue to consume more than one million barrels per day to provide electricity to its cities and factories,” he said.

“The real arms race will begin in eight years, when the Iran agreement ends. That is, unless it is renewed or it collapses due to President Donald Trump’s policies. Certainly, such a collapse will not be in Saudi Arabia’s favor,” he warned.

Other analysts such as Thomas W Lippman, a former journalist and author of “Saudi Arabia on the Edge: The Uncertain Future of an American Ally”, felt that Riyadh is unlikely to seek nuclear weapons, no matter what becomes of Iran’s nuclear program.

“The negative consequences of doing so would far outweigh any conceivable strategic gain. The kingdom, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has tied its future to full integration with the global economic and industrial system. It cannot afford the international ostracism that nuclear proliferation would bring,” he said.

“Moreover, the Saudis know that they have few friends in the US Congress. Any sign that the kingdom was moving toward nuclear weapons would end US arms sales and terminate the strategic relationship that has long ensured the kingdom’s security,” Lippman added.

Senior analyst of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Persian Gulf Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, Kenneth Katzman however, echoed the Saudi Crown Prince’s statement. “Saudi Arabia will not likely use civilian nuclear technology as a cover to pursue a nuclear weapons program unless Iran moves toward doing so,” he said.

Katzman felt that Saudi Arabia seeks to develop nuclear technology to meet growing energy demand, as well as to demonstrate to Iran that Tehran does not have a monopoly on nuclear technology in the Gulf region.

“Any US approval for Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear power will carry significant restrictions on the use of US technology to preclude Saudi Arabia from developing a nuclear weapon. Saudi leaders undoubtedly understand that the kingdom’s relationship with the United States would be harmed irreparably if Saudi Arabia were to violate those restrictions,” he said concurring with Lippman.

“Still, the acquisition of civilian nuclear technology adequately serves the kingdom’s purpose of signaling to Iran that any moves by the Islamic Republic to develop a nuclear weapon can be easily countered by Saudi Arabia,” Katzman reasoned.

(CGTN)