Kim Jong-un's "weight problem" and the pitfalls of spy briefings

After South Korea's spy agency briefed politicians about DPRK leader Kim Jong-un's rapid weight gain, prompting speculation he suffered from paranoia-induced insomnia, the BBC's Stephen Evans reflects on the value of such observations.

The headlines are lurid and specific: "DPRK's Kim Jong-un 'binge-eating and drinking' to cope with assassination fears."

"NK leader suffering from insomnia, adult diseases," reads another.

Around the world, a briefing given by the South Korean National Intelligence Service is generating coverage. DPRK's leader has, we are told, gained an enormous amount of weight. He can't sleep. He fears for his life.

But how reliable are these briefings, which the South Korean spy agency gives the country's politicians? The truth is that their methods, like those of spies everywhere, are part hard information and part conjecture.

I once had lunch with an analyst from the National Intelligence Service (NIS). I can't tell you exactly who he was, because he refused to give out his business card. However, he opined that a woman in Kim Jong-un's inner circle was pregnant. When I asked how he knew, he replied that she was suddenly appearing in photographs with flat, sensible shoes.

He may, of course, have been right. Some mothers do say that when they were pregnant, they discarded uncomfortable heels.

But the story does illustrate the tenuous ways in which the analysis of photographs in the DPRK’s media might be hit or miss.

Maybe the lady being analysed by South Korea's spy agency just felt like a change of shoe. Maybe the NIS had further, corroborating information. We do not know.

In the current case, concluding that the Supreme Leader has put on weight is easier. The pictures in DPRK’s media show the pounds which can't be photoshopped off. According to the National Intelligence Service, he was 90kg in 2012 but now weighs 130kg.

Similarly, two years ago, Kim Jong-un was shown limping on DPRK’s state television, and then, three months later, hobbling with the aid of a walking stick.

You don't need to be James Bond to conclude that there was something wrong with at least one of his legs. The surmising (probably in Seoul's intelligence agency, with the aid of medical experts) was that he was suffering from gout, an illness associated with over-indulgence, though there are other causes too.

He may have had surgery, which would have explained his absence from public view between the pictures of him limping in discomfort and then with a walking-stick.This kind of information usually emerges when the NIS briefs South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee in private. This briefing to politicians then gets passed on to journalists and the information ends up in the newspapers.

There is obviously plenty of room for error and distortion in this process. How much spin is put on the bald facts is unclear.

In the latest case, the information published was a lot more than the visible evidence of Kim Jong-un's weight-gain. All kinds of theories were also posited.

But seeing the obvious in the photographs is easy. Drawing the right conclusions is harder.

South Korea's main news agency, Yonhap, reported the briefing thus: "Rep. Lee Cheol-woo of the ruling Saenuri Party, who chairs the committee, said Kim is currently under great stress due to his safety, which has led to excessive binge eating and drinking.

"Kim also fears that overseas media reports on his childhood may spread throughout Pyongyang, which may hurt his legitimacy as the leader of DPRK.

"During his childhood, Kim would stop eating for long periods of time when his mother scolded him, which reflects his stubborn character, Lee quoted the NIS as saying."

(BBC)