Brazilian president likely to win re-election in first round: poll

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is likely to be reelected in the first round of elections in October next year, according to a poll released Thursday.

The poll, commissioned by the National Transports Confederation (NTC) and conducted by pollsters MDA, shows 43.4 percent of the electorate plans to vote for Rousseff, while her closest rival, Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) Senator Aecio Neves, trails far behind with 19.3 percent. In the third place is Pernambuco state governor Eduardo Campos of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), with 9.5 percent.

The MDA credits Rousseff's likely win to the fact that her initial main rival, former senator and Environment Minister Marina Silva, left the race for the presidency and will probably run alongside Campos, as his vice presidential running mate.

Silva, who had some 20 percent backing among the electorate in mid-2013, decided to leave the race after her request to found a new political party was struck down by the Electoral Court, leaving her with no choice but to join another party.

The former senator chose to join the PSB party, whose likely candidate is Campos. With Silva out of the way, Rousseff's re- election bid is looking like a sure bet.

Rousseff's approval rating is at a fairly high 58.8 percent and climbing, according to the MDA poll, which noted that figure was 58 percent in a September poll.

Some 38.9 percent of those surveyed disapprove of her performance as head of state.

Her government's approval rating has also increased slightly, going from 38.1 percent in September to 39 percent.

Rousseff started the year with record-high approval, but her popularity took a hit following nationwide anti-government protests this June against poor public services, such as education and healthcare, and rampant public spending on the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games, both of which Brazil will be hosting.

But her numbers have bounced back.

According to the MDA's results, if the elections were held today, Rousseff would easily win in the first round with a clear majority of the votes, unless Silva gets back in the race, as the candidate, say, of the PSB.

In that scenario, Rousseff would get 40.6 percent of votes, Silva, 22.6 percent, and Neves would fall to the third place with 16.5 percent of votes, leading to a second round between Silva and Rousseff, which Rousseff would win with 46.6 percent of votes against Silva's 29.1 percent.

Of those polled, 21.5 percent said they want the ruling Workers Party (PT) to remain in power, while 4.5 percent said they wanted the PSDB to govern.

The poll, carried out between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, surveyed 2, 005 eligible voters in 135 towns around Brazil, and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.