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The trade recovery of 2017 should continue with solid trade volume growth in the first quarter of 2018, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said Monday in its latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI).
The indicator's current value of 102.3 is little changed from the 102.2 recorded in November, indicating steady merchandise trade volume growth.
Strong results for air freight, container shipping and export orders, particularly suggest that, while the trade recovery may moderate in due course, it will likely continue in the coming months and remain above trend.
WTOI component indices are mostly favorable.
Container port throughput (104.3) and air freight (103.2) are firmly above trend, indicating strong current shipment of goods.
Meanwhile, export orders (102.8) have reached their highest level since 2011, pointing to sustained recovery.
Weaker results are observed for automotive products (101.0), agricultural raw materials (100.8) and electronic components (94.1), which could indicate a weakening of consumer sentiment.
"Overall, these results are somewhat stronger than the WTO's most recent trade forecast issued on September 21 2017, which forecast merchandise trade volume growth of 3.6 percent for 2017 and 3.2 percent in 2018," said the WTO.
It noted, however, that WTOI does provide an indication of trade growth in the near future. Its main contribution is to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth.
WTOI is designed to provide "real time" information on the trajectory of world trade relative to recent trends.
Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above-trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the reverse.
The direction of change reflects momentum compared with the previous month.
WTOI has recorded readings of 102 or higher since February 2017, which coincided with a strengthening of global trade flows.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
